Overview:

Sixers pick:

The Sixers currently have the 3rd worst record, but, if the Sixers lose and the Knicks win, could tie New York for the 2nd worst record. The two teams would then split 354 ping pong balls, and a coin flip would determine who gets the extra ball, and also who goes first in the draft in the unlikely event that neither team ends up in the top 3. The Sixers cannot catch Minnesota, and the Lakers cannot catch the Sixers.

Lakers pick:

The Lakers have 3 more wins than the Sixers and 4 less wins than the Magic and are locked into the 4th worst record. That means the Sixers will need two teams in the 5-14 slots of the lottery to move into the top-3 in order for the Lakers pick, which is top-5 protected, to fall to 6. That has a 17.2% chance of happening.

If the Sixers do not get the pick this season, it becomes top-3 protected in next year’s 2016 draft, would be top-3 protected in 2017, and fully unprotected in 2018.

Miami pick:

Miami is now locked into finishing 10th, 11th, or 15th as Miami cannot move up to 9th (Charlotte), and they can only catch Brooklyn (1 game left) or Indy (2 games left), so those are now the 3 teams (Miami, Indy, Brooklyn) that Sixers fans need to focus on.

(The reason Miami cannot finish 12th, 13th, or 14th, but can finish 15th, is because, while Miami can make the playoffs, they are guaranteed to have a worse record than Utah, Phoenix, and Oklahoma City/New Orleans. Lottery teams always have better draft picks than playoff teams, even if they have a better record).

Indy has 2 games left (Washington and at Memphis). In order for Miami to catch them, Miami has to beat the Sixers on Wednesday and Indy has to lose both of their remaining games. Indy is playing two relatively tough teams, but Washington has nothing to play for, and Indy has won 5 in a row, so the odds don’t look very good.

Brooklyn has been struggling a bit of late, having lost 2 in a row, including a game against Chicago at home that wasn’t very competitive. But the Nets finish off their season with the lowly Magic and still have a chance at the playoffs, so this again looks like a long shot.

If Miami ties either of these two teams, the two teams will split lottery balls (9 balls each, with the winner of a coin flip getting a 10th ball). Assuming neither team moves up into the top 3, a coin flip will determine who drafts 10th and who drafts 11th. The coin flips usually happen a few days after the regular season ends.

One of these 3 teams will make the playoffs in the horrible Eastern Conference. Since Miami cannot pass any of these teams outright, the only chance Miami has of making the playoffs is in a 3-way tie. The first tiebreaker when multiple teams are tied is “better winning percentage in all games among tied teams”. Miami would win that tiebreaker, as they are 5-3 against Indy and Brooklyn (1-3 vs Indy, 4-0 vs Brooklyn). Indy is 4-3 (3-1 vs Miami, 1-2 vs Brooklyn) and Brooklyn is 2-5 (0-4 vs Miami, 2-1 vs Indy). Indy would have the playoff tiebreaker over Miami if only those two teams were tied, but that is a scenario that cannot happen.

If Indiana wins tonight, then Miami is eliminated from the playoffs, which would have huge ramifications on Wednesday’s Sixers vs Heat game. Indy can win and Miami can still catch Brooklyn (Miami win vs Sixers, Brooklyn loss vs Orlando), but Miami’s motivation to play hard on Wednesday takes a big hit if they’re eliminated tonight.

If the Sixers do not get the pick this season, it will be top-10 protected again next year before becoming fully unprotected in 2017.

Oklahoma City pick:

Oklahoma City is still tied with New Orleans for the last playoff spot out West, but they are 2 wins behind Washington with only 1 game remaining. Because of that, Oklahoma City’s pick cannot fall past 18th. Since the pick is top-18 protected, the Sixers cannot get OKC’s pick this season.

The protection on the pick lessens next season. The pick is only top-15 protected in the 2016 draft. It would then be top-15 protected again in 2017. If the pick is still not conveyed, it would turn into a 2nd round pick in 2017 and a 2nd round pick in 2018.

Last Night’s Games

Sixers pick (currently 3rd):

• Sixers lost (good): The Sixers lost, which keeps them in play to move up from the 3rd worst record into a tie for the 2nd worst record, at which point they would split ping-pong balls with the Knicks and, if neither team landed in the top 3, a coin flip would determine who picks first.
• Knicks won (good): The Knicks won their 2nd straight, putting them at 17 wins and, surprisingly, still capable of catching the Sixers for the 3rd worst record in the league.
• Minnesota lost (bad): Minnesota losing to New Orleans means that the Sixers cannot catch the Wolves, and the Wolves will have, at a minimum, tied for the worst record in the league.

Heat pick (top 10 protected, currently 10th):

• Charlotte lost (good): Charlotte’s loss and Miami’s win means Charlotte (9th worst record) cannot pass Miami.
• Miami won (good): Miami beat Orlando, leaving them 1 game behind Brooklyn and 1.5 behind Indy. Miami needs to beat the Sixers on Wednesday AND one of Brooklyn (plays Orlando) or Indy (plays Washington and @Memphis) needs to lose out, at which point the Sixers fate would (likely) be determined by a coin flip, barring the unlikely (~9%) chance that one of those teams move up into the top 3.
• Brooklyn lost (good): Brooklyn’s loss keeps them in play. They’ve now lost 2 in a row, but with an easy game against Orlando to close out the season, the Sixers are going to need some luck.
• Utah won (bad): Utah’s victory over Dallas (who rested Chandler and Dirk) means that the Heat cannot catch Utah.

Tonight’s games:

• Washington @ Indiana: If the Pacers win this, then Miami cannot catch Indy. Besides that, it also means that Miami will be eliminated from the playoffs and will have nothing to play for Wednesday against the Sixers. Washington is locked into the 5th seed and has nothing to play for, increasing the chance that the Pacers pull this game out.