Sixers Draft Pick Tracker – April 15th, 2015
Overview:
| Season | FG% - Qt 1-3 | FG% - Qt 4 + OT | TOV% - QT 1-3 | TOV% - QT 4 + OT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-13 | 42.8% | 39.0% | 10.1% | 14.7% |
| Career | 43.2% | 41.7% | 10.3% | 12% |
Rooting overview:
Miami beat Sixers, Orlando beat Brooklyn, Knicks beat Detroit.
Sixers pick:
The Sixers currently have the 3rd worst record, but, if the Sixers lose and the Knicks win, could tie New York for the 2nd worst record. The two teams would then split 354 ping pong balls, and a coin flip would determine who gets the extra ball, and also who goes first in the draft in the unlikely event that neither team ends up in the top 3. The Sixers cannot catch Minnesota, and the Lakers cannot catch the Sixers.
Lakers pick:
The Lakers have 3 more wins than the Sixers and 4 less wins than the Magic and are locked into the 4th worst record. That means the Sixers will need two teams in the 5-14 slots of the lottery to move into the top-3 in order for the Lakers pick, which is top-5 protected, to fall to 6. That has a 17.2% chance of happening.
If the Sixers do not get the pick this season, it becomes top-3 protected in next year’s 2016 draft, would be top-3 protected in 2017, and fully unprotected in 2018.
Miami pick:
Miami is now locked into finishing either 10th or 11th. The only team that they can catch is Brooklyn.
Brooklyn finishes up their season tonight against Orlando. The Sixers need Miami to win their game against the Sixers, and they need Brooklyn to lose against Orlando. If either Miami loses or Brooklyn wins, Miami will finish with the 10th worst record.
If Miami wins and Brooklyn loses, then Miami and Brooklyn will tie for the 10th worst record. They will split 18 ping pong balls, with each getting 9. A coin flip will then determine who gets a 10th ping pong ball, and also who drafts first if neither team moves into the top-3.
That 2nd result of the coin flip is the key, as neither team will have a great chance of moving into the top-3 (~3.5% chance for either team). The coin flip, however, will have drastic implications on the Sixers chances of getting the 10th pick. If Miami wins the coin flip and drafts first, the Sixers will have a 9.1% chance of getting the pick. If Miami loses the coin flip and drafts 2nd, the Sixers will have a 97.1% chance of getting the pick.
With Indiana winning last night, Miami was mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Brooklyn wins a tiebreaker with Indiana, and still has something to play for tonight.
If the Sixers do not get the pick this season, it will be top-10 protected again next year before becoming fully unprotected in 2017.
Oklahoma City pick:
Oklahoma City is still tied with New Orleans for the last playoff spot out West, but they are 2 wins behind Washington with only 1 game remaining. Because of that, Oklahoma City’s pick cannot fall past 18th. Since the pick is top-18 protected, the Sixers cannot get OKC’s pick this season.
The protection on the pick lessens next season. The pick is only top-15 protected in the 2016 draft. It would then be top-15 protected again in 2017. If the pick is still not conveyed, it would turn into a 2nd round pick in 2017 and a 2nd round pick in 2018.
Last Night’s Games
Sixers pick (currently 3rd):
- No games impacted the Sixers draft pick last night.
| Days Rest | Games | FG% | 3pt% | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22 | 37.1% | 26% | 12.1 |
| 1 | 38 | 43.4% | 44.4% | 13.6 |
| 2 | 17 | 45% | 33.3% | 14.4 |
| 3 | 5 | 39.3% | 50% | 13.4 |
Heat pick (top 10 protected, currently 10th):
- Pacers won (bad): The Pacers double overtime victory over Washington puts them 2 games up with only 1 game left to play, and thus no longer an option for the Heat to catch. It also eliminates the Miami Heat from playoff contention.
| Stat | Before Deadline | After Deadline |
|---|---|---|
| Points per 100 possessions | 91.5 | 94.8 |
| True Shooting % | 49.4% | 49.4% |
| 3pt % | 31% | 34.7% |
| % of field goal attempts from 3 | 30% | 34.7% |
| Assists per turnover | 1.09 | 1.32 |
| Turnovers per 100 possessions | 18.9 | 16.4 |
| Team | Def Rebs | % pushing ball | Def Reb% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76ers | 119 | 86.6% | 62.8% |
| Opponent | 132 | 49.2% | 73.7% |
Tonight’s games:
- Miami @ Sixers: The Sixers really, really, really need to lose this game. Not only can the Sixers still catch New York (and gain up to 22 more ping pong balls in the process), but losing can also keep alive the hope of getting Miami’s pick. Any Sixers player who has a hangnail could be liable to be in street clothes tonight. Unfortunately, as Miami was eliminated from the playoffs, they could (should) very well take the same approach. Their options are miss the playoffs and potentially lose their pick, or miss the playoffs and likely get the 10th pick. It’s a huge game for Miami, too.
- Orlando @ Brooklyn: Another huge game. Brooklyn would win a tiebreaker with the Pacers, so they still have a chance at the playoffs, and thus something to play for tonight. And they’re going up against an Orlando team that has lost 3 straight and has nothing to play for. If the Sixers want to get the Miami pick (without relying on lottery magic), they need Orlando to somehow win this game tonight.
- Detroit @ Knicks: New York’s 2 game winning streak has them only one game away from the Sixers. If the Knicks can beat Detroit, and the Sixers lose to Miami, then the Sixers and Knicks will be tied for the 2nd worst record.
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pdobie
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Bill Glasgow