Draft Pick Tracker – March 6th, 2017
Hey guys!
I’ve brought back the daily draft pick tracker, which will track the status of the Sixers pick, the Lakers pick, and the extra ping pong balls coming by way of the Kings pick swap.
We’ll start off with a table at the top summarizing the status of the three picks. Then we’ll dive into the details of each pick, what teams are around them in the standings, how the games lost night impacted the Sixers’ draft pick status, and who you should cheer for tonight in order to maximize those ping pong ball combinations.
(In parenthesis will be whether the outcome is good or bad for that pick, if it happened last night, and who to cheer for if the game takes place tonight).
2017 Draft Pick Tracker – Summary
| Pick | Place | GB (from 2nd) | Games Left | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakers | 2nd | — | 19 | 44.2% chance at conveying |
| Sixers | 5th | 4.5 | 20 | 88 lottery combinations |
| Kings | 8th | 6.5 | 20 | 23 lottery combinations |
Lakers Pick (currently 2nd):
Lakers draft pick – Current Status:
| Team | Place | Record | GB (from LAL) | Games Left | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nets | 1st | 10-51 | -8.0 | 21 | 1-9 |
| Lakers | 2nd | 19-44 | — | 19 | 2-8 |
| Suns | 3rd | 21-42 | +2.0 | 19 | 5-5 |
| Magic | 4th | 23-40 | +4.0 | 19 | 3-7 |
Where the Lakers currently are in the standings)
The Lakers seem pretty locked into the 2nd worst record at this point, being a full 2 games away from the Suns and with nearly historical incentive to tank. Luckily, I don’t think even they can catch the Nets for the worst record.
Last night’s games:
- Lakers lost (bad): I’m classifying this is bad since I think most people want as high of a chance that the Lakers pick conveys as possible. Personally, though, I’m okay with guaranteeing either a top-5 pick this year *or* an unprotected pick next year.
- Phoenix won (bad): Again, same logic as above. If you want the highest chance that the Lakers pick conveys, this is bad. I’m okay with the outcome, though.
- Orlando lost (good): Orlando losing keeps them 4 games up on the Lakers. That’s a lot to make up in short order, however, and they’re close to being removed from the list of teams to watch regarding the Lakers pick.
Tonight’s games:
- New York at Orlando (it’s complicated): For the purposes of just this game, an Orlando loss would help keep alive the possibility of the Lakers catching them. However, considering how remote of a possibility that is, and the possibility Orlando could catch the Sixers (0.5 games up) and the Kings (2.5 up), there’s benefits to both outcomes.
Draft Pick Matrix:
| Finishes | 1-3 pick | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worst record | 64.3% | 35.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2nd worst | 55.8% | 31.9% | 12.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3rd | 46.9% | 22.6% | 26.5% | 4.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4th | 37.8% | 9.9% | 35.0% | 16.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 5th | 29.1% | 0.0% | 26.1% | 35.9% | 8.4% | 0.4% |
What odds the Lakers have of getting each pick (columns) depending on where they finish in the standings (rows). In red means the Sixers would not get the pick. The row in bold is where the Lakers are if the season finished today. All odds assume no ties in the final standings).
Sixers/Kings Pick (currently 5th):
| Team | Place | Record | GB (Sixers) | Games Left | Last 10 | Lotto combinations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic | 4th | 23-40 | -0.5 | 19 | 3-7 | 119 |
| Sixers | 5th | 23-39 | — | 20 | 5-5 | 88 |
| Knicks | 6th | 25-38 | +1.5 | 19 | 3-7 | 53 |
| Pelicans | 7th | 25-38 | +1.5 | 19 | 5-5 | 53 |
| Kings | 8th | 25-37 | +2.0 | 20 | 5-5 (L4) | 23 |
| Wolves | 9th | 25-37 | +2.0 | 20 | 6-4 | 22 |
| Mavs | 10th | 26-36 | +3.0 | 20 | 6-4 | 11 |
(How the Sixers and Kings fit into the standings. Lottery ball combinations based on if the season ended today.)
Current combined odds:
- #1 pick: 11.1%
- Top-3 pick: 35.8%
Last night’s games:
- Orlando lost (bad): Orlando remains 0.5 games behind the Sixers and 2.5 behind Sacramento with their 1 point loss to the Wizards.
- Knicks lost (bad): The Knicks are tied for the 6th worst record and remain 1.5 games up on the Sixers and 0.5 games behind the Kings.
- Pelicans won (good): The Pelicans win over the Lakers, while bad for the Lakers pick, puts them in a tie with New York and just 0.5 games behind the Kings.
- Kings lost (good): The Kings lost on a last second shot in overtime, falling 110-109 to the Jazz. They’ve now lost 4 in a row and are tied for the 8th worst record in the league.
- Dallas won (good): Dallas won, pulling them a full game ahead of the Kings and now at 10th place in the standings.
Tonight’s games:
- Sacramento @ Denver (go Denver): Every Kings loss brings the Sixers closer to more lottery ball combinations on May 16th. With how tight that “race” is, every loss helps.
- Portland @ Minnesota (go Minnesota?): This is close, since the Wolves (25-37) and Blazers (26-35) are so close, but it makes sense to root for the team with the worse record. Minnesota’s tied with Sacramento for the 8th worst record.
- New York @ Orlando (go Knicks?): An Orlando win helps the Lakers pick, but a Knicks win helps both the Sixers and the Kings pick. The Knicks are a half game behind the Kings at the 6th worst record.
- Milwaukee @ Philadelphia (go Bucks): It’s March, so you’re back to rooting for Sixers losses. 4th worst record (Orlando, 0.5 games back) is very much within reach.
- New Orleans @ Utah (go Pelicans): The Pelicans are tied with the Knicks for the 6th worst record, and are just 0.5 games back from the Kings.
