Draft Pick Tracker – March 7th, 2017
Welcome back to your daily Sixers draft pick tracker.
We’ll start off with a table at the top summarizing the status of the three picks. Then we’ll dive into the details of each pick, what teams are around them in the standings, how the games last night impacted the Sixers’ draft pick status, and who you should cheer for tonight in order to maximize those ping pong ball combinations.
(In parenthesis will be whether the outcome is good or bad for that pick, if it happened last night, and who to cheer for if the game takes place tonight).
2017 Draft Pick Tracker – Summary
| Pick | Place | GB (from 2nd) | Games Left | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakers | 2nd | — | 19 | 44.2% chance at conveying |
| Sixers | 5th | 4.0 | 19 | 88 lottery combinations |
| Kings | 8th | 6.0 | 19 | 43 lottery combinations |
Lakers Pick (currently 2nd):
Lakers draft pick – Current Status:
| Team | Place | Record | GB (from LAL) | Games Left | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nets | 1st | 11-51 | -7.5 | 20 | 2-8 |
| Lakers | 2nd | 19-44 | — | 19 | 2-8 |
| Suns | 3rd | 21-42 | +2.0 | 19 | 5-5 |
| Magic | 4th | 23-41 | +3.5 | 18 | 3-7 |
(Where the Lakers currently are in the standings)
The more time that goes by, the more and more it looks like the Lakers are locked into that #2 slot.
Last night’s games:
- Orlando lost (good?): Orlando lost to the Knicks, which helps keep the Lakers within reach at 3.5 games back of the Magic. A Knicks win also helps the Sixers and Kings pick, as the Knicks jumped past the Kings and into the 9th worst record. An Orlando loss does also keep the Magic 0.5 games below the Sixers. In short, it’s complicated. Going forward I would probably root for the Magic to win since the Lakers passing them seems virtually impossible, but the Knicks winning helped as well.
Tonight’s games:
- Lakers @ Dallas: A Lakers win would pull them closer to the Suns, thus increasing the chance their pick conveys (see the matrix below).
- Washington @ Phoenix: If you’re hoping to maximize the odds that the Lakers pick conveys, you’re pulling for Washington here. Phoenix is 2.0 games ahead of the Los Angeles and the only team the Lakers have any realistic chance at catching.
Lakers Draft Pick Matrix:
| Finishes | 1-3 pick | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worst record | 64.3% | 35.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2nd worst | 55.8% | 31.9% | 12.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3rd | 46.9% | 22.6% | 26.5% | 4.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4th | 37.8% | 9.9% | 35.0% | 16.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 5th | 29.1% | 0.0% | 26.1% | 35.9% | 8.4% | 0.4% |
What odds the Lakers have of getting each pick (columns) depending on where they finish in the standings (rows). In red means the Sixers would not get the pick. The row in bold is where the Lakers are if the season finished today. All odds assume no ties in the final standings).
Sixers/Kings Pick (currently 5th):
| Team | Place | Record | GB (Sixers) | Games Left | Last 10 | Lotto combinations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic | 4th | 23-41 | -0.5 | 18 | 3-7 | 119 |
| Sixers | 5th | 23-40 | — | 19 | 4-6 | 88 |
| Pelicans | 6th | 25-39 | +1.5 | 18 | 4-6 | 63 |
| Kings | 7th | 25-38 | +2.0 | 19 | 4-6 (L5) | 43 |
| Wolves | 8th | 25-37 | +2.5 | 20 | 6-4 | 28 |
| Knicks | 9th | 26-38 | +2.5 | 18 | 4-6 | 17 |
| Mavs | 10th | 26-36 | +3.5 | 20 | 6-4 | 11 |
(How the Sixers and Kings fit into the standings. Lottery ball combinations based on if the season ended today.)
Current combined odds:
- #1 pick: 13.1%
- Top-3 pick: 41.4%
Last night’s games:
- Sacramento lost (good): Sacramento lost to Denver, and are now up to the 7th worst record. That bumped the Sixers odds for the #1 pick up to 13.1% (from 11.1%) and the odds of a top-3 pick up to 41.4% (from 35.8%).
- Orlando lost (good?): Typically, you’d want Orlando, just 0.5 games behind the Sixers, to win and jump the Sixers in the standings. But the Knicks losing pushes them past the Kings in the standings and gives the Sixers more ping pong ball combinations, so I’m marking this down as a positive. There’s an argument either way, though.
- Sixers lost (good): Defense still bad. Ping pong ball combinations climbing. Order is restored in Sixers land.
- New Orleans lost (bad): New Orleans losing means they’re still 0.5 games back from the Kings.
- Portland/Minnesota delayed: The Portland/Minnesota game was delayed because of unsafe playing conditions.
Tonight’s games:
- Washington @ Phoenix: Phoenix winning would pull them to within 1.5 games of catching the Sixers. It would also pull them away from the Lakers, though.
