Draft Pick Tracker – March 9th, 2017
Welcome back to your daily Sixers draft pick tracker.
I’ve changed up the format ever so slightly, moving last night / tonight’s games to the top with the summary, then including the tables below (Lakers pick status, Lakers odds matrix, Sixers/Kings pick status) as a reference point.
(In parenthesis will be whether the outcome is good or bad for that pick, if it happened last night, and who to cheer for if the game takes place tonight).
2017 Draft Pick Tracker – Summary
| Pick | Place | GB (from 2nd) | Games Left | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakers | 2nd | — | 18 | 44.2% chance at conveying |
| Sixers | 4th | 4.5 | 19 | 119 lottery combinations |
| Kings | 7th | 6.0 | 18 | 43 lottery combinations |
Last night’s results:
- Wolves beat the Clippers (good): Minnesota winning pulls them 1.5 games up on the Kings.
- Magic beat the Bulls (good): Orlando winning pulls them ahead of the Sixers by percentage points, and only 1 game back from the Kings.
- Spurs beat the Kings (good): The Kings got outscored by 14 in the 4th to pull out the clutch loss. They’re now in 7th place and 1.5 games from the 5th seed.
- Raptors beat the Pelicans (bad): A Pelicans loss keeps them in the 6th spot, a half game worse than the Kings.
- Bucks beat the Knicks (bad): The Knicks losing keeps them just a half game up on the Kings in that 8th spot.
Tonight’s games:
- Sixers @ Portland (go Portland): It’s March, so Sixers losses help.
- Lakers @ Suns (go Suns): Which way do you go? I’ve made my peace with the Lakers finishing with the 2nd worst record, and Phoenix (2.5 back from the Sixers) still has a shot to catch the Sixers in the standings.
Current combined odds for Sixers/Kings pick swap:
- #1 pick: 16.2%
- Top-3 pick: 49.0%
Lakers Pick (currently 2nd):
Lakers draft pick – Current Status:
| Team | Place | Record | GB (from LAL) | Games Left | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nets | 1st | 11-52 | -7.5 | 19 | 2-8 |
| Lakers | 2nd | 19-45 | — | 18 | 1-9 |
| Suns | 3rd | 21-43 | +2.0 | 18 | 4-6 |
| Sixers | 4th | 23-40 | +4.5 | 19 | 4-6 |
(Where the Lakers currently are in the standings)
The more time that goes by, the more and more it looks like the Lakers are locked into that #2 slot.
Lakers Draft Pick Matrix:
| Finishes | 1-3 pick | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worst record | 64.3% | 35.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2nd worst | 55.8% | 31.9% | 12.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3rd | 46.9% | 22.6% | 26.5% | 4.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4th | 37.8% | 9.9% | 35.0% | 16.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 5th | 29.1% | 0.0% | 26.1% | 35.9% | 8.4% | 0.4% |
What odds the Lakers have of getting each pick (columns) depending on where they finish in the standings (rows). In red means the Sixers would not get the pick. The row in bold is where the Lakers are if the season finished today. All odds assume no ties in the final standings).
Sixers/Kings Pick (currently 5th):
| Team | Place | Record | GB (Sixers) | Games Left | Last 10 | Lotto combinations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sixers | 4th | 23-40 | — | 19 | 4-6 | 119 |
| Magic | 5th | 24-41 | — | 17 | 4-6 | 88 |
| Pelicans | 6th | 25-40 | +1.0 | 17 | 4-6 | 63 |
| Kings | 7th | 25-39 | +1.5 | 17 | 3-7 (L6) | 43 |
| Knicks | 8th | 26-39 | +2.0 | 17 | 4-6 | 28 |
| Wolves | 9th | 26-37 | +3.0 | 19 | 6-4 | 17 |
| Mavs | 10th | 27-36 | +4.0 | 19 | 6-4 | 11 |
(How the Sixers and Kings fit into the standings. Lottery ball combinations based on if the season ended today.)
