Draft Pick Tracker – March 16th, 2017

Updated: Thursday, March 16, 2017 09:18 AM

Welcome back to your daily Sixers draft pick tracker.

We’ll start off with a table at the top summarizing the status of the three picks, then we’ll list out last night’s games and whether their results were good or bad for the Sixers draft pick positioning, and follow that up with tonight’s games and who you should root for. Finally, we’ll have some tables at the bottom providing some additional details on the various draft picks, including odds that the Lakers pick conveys at each position.

(In parenthesis will be whether the outcome is good or bad for that pick, if it happened last night, and who to cheer for if the game takes place tonight). 

2017 Draft Pick Tracker – Summary

Pick Place GB (from 2nd) Games Left Notes
Lakers 2nd 14 44.2% chance at conveying
Sixers 5th 4.5 15 88 lottery combinations
Kings t6th 7.0 14 45 lottery combinations

Last night’s results:

  • Celtics beat the Wolves (bad): The Wolves are only 1 win up on the Kings, so we’ll classify this as a bad outcome. I’m fairly confident in the Wolves finishing with a better record, though.
  • Rockets beat the Lakers (by 39) (bad): Pretty irrelevant. The Lakers will finish with the 2nd worst record. Still, Phoenix keeps losing just enough to make you hope against all odds that the tanking-as-hard-as-possible (but doing so defiantly and self-righteously) Lakers can find a win or two.
  • Pacers beat the Hornets (bad). Hornets are 2 wins up on Sacramento and shouldn’t be caught by the Kings, but they’re playing bad basketball of late themselves.
  • Heat beat the Pelicans (bad): The Pelicans loss (and Kings win) sets up a three-way tie for the 6th worst record in the NBA.
  • Kings beat the Suns (bad): It helps keep the Suns close to the Lakers, but I think that’s a) unrealistic, b) not as important as the Kings falling in the standings.
  • Mavs beat the Wizards (good): The lone positive outcome from last night’s games, as the win gives the Mavs 2 more victories than the Kings have.

Tonight’s games:

  • Orlando @ Golden State: An Orlando victory would push them ahead of the Sixers in the standings, giving the Sixers the 4th best lottery odds if the season ended today.
  • Nets @ Knicks (go Knicks): The Knicks are in a 3-way tie with Sacramento for the 6th worst record, so a win here would help.

Current combined odds for Sixers/Kings pick swap:

  • #1 pick: 13.3% (-1.8% change from yesterday)
  • Top-3 pick: 41.9% (-4.6% change from yesterday)
  • Two Top-5 Picks: 28.6% (-2.3% change from yesterday)

Lakers Pick (currently 2nd):

Lakers draft pick – Current Status:

Team Place Record GB (from LAL) Games Left Last 10
Nets 1st 12-54 -7.0 16 3-7
Lakers 2nd 20-48 14 1-9
Suns 3rd 22-46 +2.0 14 4-6
Magic 4th 24-44 +4.0 14 3-7

(Where the Lakers currently are in the standings)

Lakers Draft Pick Matrix:

Finishes 1-3 pick 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
Worst record 64.3% 35.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2nd worst 55.8% 31.9% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3rd 46.9% 22.6% 26.5% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4th 37.8% 9.9% 35.0% 16.1% 1.3% 0.0%
5th 29.1% 0.0% 26.1% 35.9% 8.4% 0.4%

What odds the Lakers have of getting each pick (columns) depending on where they finish in the standings (rows). In red means the Sixers would not get the pick. The row in bold is where the Lakers are if the season finished today. All odds assume no ties in the final standings).

Sixers/Kings Pick (currently 5th/t6th):

Team Place Record GB (Sixers) Games Left Last 10 Lotto combinations
Magic 4th 24-44 +0.5 14 3-7 119
Sixers 5th 24-43 15 2-8 88
Pelicans t6th 27-41 +2,0 14 4-6 45
Knicks t6th 27-41 +2.5 14 4-6 45
Kings t6th 27-41 +3.0 14 2-8 44
Wolves 9th 28-39 +4.5 15 6-4 17
Hornets 10th 29-39 +4.5 14 4-6 11

(How the Sixers and Kings fit into the standings. Lottery ball combinations based on if the season ended today.)


Derek Bodner

Derek Bodner is a credentialed reporter covering the Philadelphia 76ers independently for DerekBodner.com. He is also a college basketball scout for DraftExpress.com, and an NBA contributor for The Ringer. Contact Information: derek.bodner@draftexpress.com / @DerekBodnerNBA

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