Draft Pick Tracker – March 24th, 2017

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Updated: Friday, March 24, 2017 04:55 AM

Welcome back to your daily Sixers draft pick tracker.

Summary:
The Knicks lost again, temporarily removes 10 ping pong ball combinations from the Sixers’ possession. Is it time to start rooting for the Lakers to, not to catch the Suns, but to avoid being caught by the Nets?

2017 Draft Pick Tracker – Summary

Pick Place GB (from 2nd) Games Left Notes
Lakers 2nd 11 44.2% chance at conveying
Sixers 5th 6.0 11 88 lottery combinations
Kings 7th 7.0 11 43 lottery combinations

Yesterday’s results:

  • Brooklyn beat Phoenix (good): The loss keeps Phoenix just 2 wins up on the Lakers, but is that the team we should be focusing on? LA does have 5 wins on Brooklyn, but with LA’s historic incentive to tank, and no incentive for Brooklyn to do so, it might be more of a discussion than it has any reasonable right to be. Brooklyn’s 5-5 in their last 10 and has a number of winnable games to finish out the season (Suns, 76ers, Magic twice), while the Lakers have won just 1 of their last 15 games.
  • Dallas beat LAC (good): Dallas’ win gives them 4 more than Sacramento, and you can pretty much stop monitoring them. The Kings won’t catch them.
  • Portland beat New York (bad): The Knicks lose to everyone these days. They’ve given up a combined 241 points to Brooklyn in games the past two weeks, for crying out loud. The loss keeps them tied with the Kings at 27 wins, but moves the Knicks into the 6th spot because they’ve played 1 extra game than Sacramento.

Tonight’s games:

  • Phoenix @ Boston (go Celtics): Again, imagining the Lakers winning twice to finish out the season is tough to do. Still, a Phoenix loss helps keep that dream alive.
  • Philadelphia @ Chicago: Depending on the results of this game, and the Orlando/Detroit game, the Sixers could jump into that 4th spot.
  • Detroit @ Orlando (go Magic): ^– see above. The Pistons have lost 5 of their last 6 games, and 6 of their last 7 road games dating back to Feb 13th.
  • Sacramento @ Golden State (go Warriors): Should be an easy W for the W’s.
  • New Orleans @ Houston (go Pels): The Pelicans have 3 more wins than the Kings. You know what’s better than being 3 wins up? 4 wins up.
  • Minnesota @ LAL (go Lakers): This one’s tough. Because of what I said above (BKN catching LAL), along with the Lakers chasing the Suns, a rare Lakers win would obviously be great. But Minnesota is also only 1 win up on the Kings, so I might throw this into the “win-win” category.
  • Brooklyn @ Washington (go Wiz): I haven’t been tracking the Nets at all in this tracker, since they’ve been 7 or so games behind the Lakers for the majority of it, and thus unlikely to be a factor. But with the way the Nets are playing, and the Lakers complete disdain for winning, that changes. Hope the Nets start losing.

Current combined odds for Sixers/Kings pick swap:

  • #1 pick: 13.1% (-1.0% change since yesterday)
  • Top-3 pick: 41.4% (-2.6% change since yesterday)
  • Two top-5 picks: 28.3% (-1.3% change since yesterday)

Lakers Pick (currently 2nd):

Lakers draft pick – Current Status:

Team Place Record GB (from LAL) Games Left Last 10
Nets 1st 15-56 -5.0 11 5-5
Lakers 2nd 20-51 11 1-9
Suns 3rd 22-50 +1.5 10 2-8
Magic 4th 26-46 +5.0 10 3-7

(Where the Lakers currently are in the standings)

Lakers Draft Pick Matrix:

Finishes 1-3 pick 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
Worst record 64.3% 35.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2nd worst 55.8% 31.9% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3rd 46.9% 22.6% 26.5% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4th 37.8% 9.9% 35.0% 16.1% 1.3% 0.0%
5th 29.1% 0.0% 26.1% 35.9% 8.4% 0.4%

What odds the Lakers have of getting each pick (columns) depending on where they finish in the standings (rows). In red means the Sixers would not get the pick. The row in bold is where the Lakers are if the season finished today. All odds assume no ties in the final standings).

Sixers/Kings Pick (currently 5th/7th):

Team Place Record GB (Sixers) Games Left Last 10 Lotto combinations
Magic 4th 26-46 -0.5 10 3-7 119
Sixers 5th 26-45 11 3-7 88
Knicks 6th 27-45 +0.5 10 2-8 63
Kings 7th 27-44 +1.0 11 2-8 43
Wolves 8th 28-42 +2.5 12 4-6 28
Pelicans 9th 30-41 +4.0 11 6-4 17
Mavs 10th 31-40 +5.0 11 6-4 11

(How the Sixers and Kings fit into the standings. Lottery ball combinations based on if the season ended today.)

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Derek Bodner

Derek Bodner is a credentialed reporter covering the Philadelphia 76ers independently for DerekBodner.com. He is also a college basketball scout for DraftExpress.com, and an NBA contributor for The Ringer. Contact Information: derek.bodner@draftexpress.com / @DerekBodnerNBA

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