Draft Pick Tracker – March 25th, 2017
Welcome back to your daily Sixers draft pick tracker.
Summary:
The Sixers are now in a three-way tie with the Kings and the Knicks for the 5th worst record, with Orlando only a half game out of that mix.
2017 Draft Pick Tracker – Summary
| Pick | Place | GB (from 2nd) | Games Left | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakers | 2nd | — | 10 | 44.2% chance at conveying |
| Sixers | t5th | 6.0 | 10 | 65 lottery combinations |
| Kings | t5th | 7.0 | 10 | 65 lottery combinations |
Yesterday’s results:
- Philadelphia beat Chicago (bad): Philadelphia would be all alone with the 4th worst record, and 119 lottery ball combinations just from their own pick, if they had lost last night.
- Boston beat Phoenix (good): Phoenix losing keeps them just a half game up on the Lakers. See the matrix below for how that would impact the odds the Sixers got the pick this year.
- Golden State beat Sacramento (good): Sacramento’s loss puts them in a three-way tie with the Sixers and the Knicks, and with the same number of wins as the Magic. The 4th worst record is very much in play, assuming New York finds a way to win a game or two.
- Houston beat New Orleans (bad): New Orleans stays at 30 wins, 3 up on the Sixers/Kings. Should be safe.
- LAL beat Minnesota (good’ish): LA’s overtime win puts them just a half game behind the Suns, but also keeps the Wolves just a game up on the Sixers and the Kings with 28 wins.
- Orlando beat Detroit (great): Orlando thumped Detroit, giving them 27 wins and only a half game back from the Knicks/Kings/Sixers tie. Can smell those 119 ping pong ball combinations.
- Washington beat Brooklyn (good): It’s all of a sudden important for Brooklyn to lose, and their loss, combined with the Lakers win, pushes them back to 6 games of separation for the worst record.
Tonight’s games:
- Toronto @ Dallas (go Mavs): Dallas is 4 wins up on NYK/PHL/SAC, but 5 wouldn’t hurt. This is probably the last day I track them, though.
- Minnesota @ Portland (go Wolves): Minnesota could really use a win, as they’re too close to the NYK/PHL/SAC grouping with only 28 wins.
- New York @ San Antonio (go Knicks): But for as important as it is for Minnesota to win, it’s even more important for the Knicks to pull one out. The Knicks are tied with Sacramento/Philly and have won just 2 of their last 8 games.
Current combined odds for Sixers/Kings pick swap:
- #1 pick: 12.9% (-0.2% change since yesterday)
- Top-3 pick: 40.8% (-0.6% change since yesterday)
- Two top-5 picks: 28.1% (-0.2% change since yesterday)
Lakers Pick (currently 2nd):
Lakers draft pick – Current Status:
| Team | Place | Record | GB (from LAL) | Games Left | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nets | 1st | 15-57 | -6.0 | 10 | 4-6 |
| Lakers | 2nd | 21-51 | — | 11 | 2-8 |
| Suns | 3rd | 22-51 | +0.5 | 9 | 1-9 |
| Magic | 4th | 27-46 | +5.5 | 9 | 4-6 |
(Where the Lakers currently are in the standings)
Lakers Draft Pick Matrix:
| Finishes | 1-3 pick | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worst record | 64.3% | 35.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2nd worst | 55.8% | 31.9% | 12.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3rd | 46.9% | 22.6% | 26.5% | 4.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4th | 37.8% | 9.9% | 35.0% | 16.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 5th | 29.1% | 0.0% | 26.1% | 35.9% | 8.4% | 0.4% |
What odds the Lakers have of getting each pick (columns) depending on where they finish in the standings (rows). In red means the Sixers would not get the pick. The row in bold is where the Lakers are if the season finished today. All odds assume no ties in the final standings).
Sixers/Kings Pick (currently t5th/t5th):
| Team | Place | Record | GB (Sixers) | Games Left | Last 10 | Lotto combinations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic | 4th | 27-46 | -0.5 | 9 | 4-6 | 119 |
| Sixers | t5th | 27-45 | — | 10 | 4-6 | 65 |
| Knicks | t5th | 27-45 | — | 10 | 2-8 | 65 |
| Kings | t5th | 27-45 | — | 10 | 2-8 | 64 |
| Wolves | 8th | 28-43 | +1.5 | 11 | 3-7 | 28 |
| Pelicans | 9th | 30-42 | +3.0 | 10 | 6-4 | 17 |
| Mavs | 10th | 31-40 | +4.5 | 11 | 6-4 | 11 |
(How the Sixers and Kings fit into the standings. Lottery ball combinations based on if the season ended today.)
