Draft Pick Tracker – March 27th, 2017
Welcome back to your daily Sixers draft pick tracker.
Summary:
The Kings inexplicable come from behind win over the Clippers pushes them a win up on the Knicks/Magic/Sixers, who are all tied for the 4th worst record at 27-46. The Lakers are also neck with the Suns for the 3rd worst record.
2017 Draft Pick Tracker – Summary
| Pick | Place | GB (from 2nd) | Games Left | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakers | 2nd | — | 9 | 44.2% chance at conveying |
| Sixers | t4th | 6.0 | 9 | 90 lottery combinations |
| Kings | 7th | 7.0 | 9 | 43 lottery combinations |
Yesterday’s results:
- Brooklyn beat Atlanta (bad): The Nets win keeps them “only” 5 games back on the Lakers. With 9 to play, the minor scare should be over.
- Charlotte beat Phoenix (good): The Phoenix loss keeps them just 0.5 games up on the Lakers for the 3rd worst record.
- New Orleans beat Denver (good): The Pelicans win keeps them 3 wins up on the Kings. With just 9 games remaining and the Pelicans playing (relatively) well, I’ve removed them (and the Mavs) from the tracker. I’ll add them back if need be.
- Indiana beat Philadelphia (good): The Sixers loss keeps them step for step with the Magic and Knicks and tied for the 4th worst record.
- Sacramento beat LAC (bad): The Clippers held a 94-76 lead with 4:59 remaining. Teams with an 18+ point lead with less than 5 minutes left to play had won the last 6,746 games. Until last night. The win pushes the Kings out of the potential 4-way tie for the 4th worst record with the Knicks/Magic/Sixers.
- Portland beat LAL (bad): Los Angeles could have tied Phoenix for the 3rd worst record with a win here, but instead stay locked into that 2nd slot.
Tonight’s games:
- Detroit @ New York (go Knicks): The Knicks are tied with the Sixers and the Magic for the 4th worst record, but they’re tanking more effectively than either. Sixers fans could really use a NYK win here.
- Orlando @ Toronto (go Magic): Orlando is also tied with the Sixers at 27-46. Tough road game for them tonight, but a win would help.
Current combined odds for Sixers/Kings pick swap:
- #1 pick: 13.3% (+0.4% change since yesterday)
- Top-3 pick: 41.8% (+1.0% change since yesterday)
- Two top-5 picks: 27.1% (-1.0% change since yesterday)
* Note: the “two top-5 picks” odds are virtually meaningless in a three-way tie like this. The odds could end up being anywhere from low-20% to low-30%, depending on the results of the coin flips.
* Note 2: lottery ties are determined based on coin flips. The coin flip determines: a) who gets the extra ping pong ball combination if the total amount is an odd number, b) who drafts first if neither team moves into the top 3.
Lakers Pick (currently 2nd):
Lakers draft pick – Current Status:
| Team | Place | Record | GB (from LAL) | Games Left | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nets | 1st | 16-57 | -5.0 | 9 | 5-5 |
| Lakers | 2nd | 21-52 | — | 9 | 2-8 |
| Suns | 3rd | 22-52 | +0.5 | 8 | 1-9 |
(Where the Lakers currently are in the standings)
Lakers Draft Pick Matrix:
| Finishes | 1-3 pick | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worst record | 64.3% | 35.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2nd worst | 55.8% | 31.9% | 12.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3rd | 46.9% | 22.6% | 26.5% | 4.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4th | 37.8% | 9.9% | 35.0% | 16.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 5th | 29.1% | 0.0% | 26.1% | 35.9% | 8.4% | 0.4% |
What odds the Lakers have of getting each pick (columns) depending on where they finish in the standings (rows). In red means the Sixers would not get the pick. The row in bold is where the Lakers are if the season finished today. All odds assume no ties in the final standings).
Sixers/Kings Pick (currently t4th/7th):
| Team | Place | Record | GB (Sixers) | Games Left | Last 10 | Lotto combinations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic | t4th | 27-46 | — | 9 | 4-6 | 90 |
| Sixers | t4th | 27-46 | — | 9 | 4-6 | 90 |
| Knicks | t4th | 27-46 | — | 9 | 2-8 | 90 |
| Kings | 7th | 28-45 | +1.0 | 9 | 3-7 | 43 |
| Wolves | 8th | 28-44 | +1.5 | 10 | 3-7 | 28 |
(How the Sixers and Kings fit into the standings. Lottery ball combinations based on if the season ended today.)
