Draft Pick Tracker – March 29th, 2017

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Updated: Wednesday, March 29, 2017 08:32 AM

Welcome back to your daily Sixers draft pick tracker.

Summary:
The Lakers and Suns continue to refuse to win, the Sixers win hurts their positioning with the Magic/Knicks, but a Minnesota win helps save the day.

Here’s a graph over how the Sixers’ lottery odds have changed by date. Included in the graphs are lines for the odds of the #1 pick, a top-3 pick, and of having two top-5 picks after May 16th’s lottery.

2017 Draft Pick Tracker – Summary

Pick Place GB (from 2nd) Games Left Notes
Lakers 2nd 8 44.2% chance at conveying
Sixers t5th 7.0 8 76 lottery combinations
Kings 7th 8.0 8 43 lottery combinations

Yesterday’s results:

  • Philadelphia won (bad): You just can’t tank with Dario Saric and Robert Covington, as Rich Hofmann so eloquently put it. The Sixers are once again tied with the Knicks at the 5th worst record and now a full game up on Orlando (4th).
  • Lakers lost (bad): The Lakers, surprise surprise, couldn’t slow down the Wizards, falling 119-108. Luckily they’re still a half game back on the Suns, because…
  • Phoenix lost (good): The Suns lost their 9th in a row. This is, a) great because it keeps the Lakers within arms reach, b) frustrating because any level of shit-giving and the Lakers would have the 3rd worst record, and thus a 53.1% chance of conveying this year rather than a 44.2% chance.
  • Minnesota won (great): Hallelujah. The win gives Minnesota one more than the Kings.

Tonight’s games:

  • Miami @ New York (go Knicks): The Sixers are tied with the Knicks at 28-46, so a win would help greatly.
  • OKC @ Orlando (go Magic): The Magic are a full game back of the Sixers at 27-47 with only 8 remaining, so every win is huge.
  • Atlanta @ Philadelphia: Back to back against a team that has frequently given the Sixers problems.
  • Utah @ Sacramento (go Jazz): Utah hasn’t been playing great of late, losing 4 of their last 6, but they’ve won 2 out of 3 against Sacramento so far this year. It seems optimistic, but there’s still a chance the Kings can be caught by the Knicks and/or Magic to fall further in the standings.

Current combined odds for Sixers/Kings pick swap:

  • #1 pick: 11.9% (+0.3% change since yesterday)
  • Top-3 pick: 38.1% (+0.8% change since yesterday)
  • Two top-5 picks: 26.7% (+0.6% change since yesterday)

Lakers Pick (currently 2nd):

Lakers draft pick – Current Status:

Team Place Record GB (from LAL) Games Left Last 10
Nets 1st 16-58 -5.0 8 5-5
Lakers 2nd 21-53 8 2-8
Suns 3rd 22-53 +0.5 7 1-9

(Where the Lakers currently are in the standings)

Lakers Draft Pick Matrix:

Finishes 1-3 pick 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
Worst record 64.3% 35.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2nd worst 55.8% 31.9% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3rd 46.9% 22.6% 26.5% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4th 37.8% 9.9% 35.0% 16.1% 1.3% 0.0%
5th 29.1% 0.0% 26.1% 35.9% 8.4% 0.4%

What odds the Lakers have of getting each pick (columns) depending on where they finish in the standings (rows). In red means the Sixers would not get the pick. The row in bold is where the Lakers are if the season finished today. All odds assume no ties in the final standings).

Sixers/Kings Pick (currently t5th/7th):

Team Place Record GB (Sixers) Games Left Last 10 Lotto combinations
Magic 4th 27-47 -1.0 8 4-6 119
Sixers t5th 28-46 8 5-5 76
Knicks t5th 28-46 8 2-8 75
Kings 7th 29-45 +1.0 8 4-6 43
Wolves 8th 29-44 +1.5 9 3-7 28

(How the Sixers and Kings fit into the standings. Lottery ball combinations based on if the season ended today.)

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Derek Bodner

Derek Bodner is a credentialed reporter covering the Philadelphia 76ers independently for DerekBodner.com. He is also a college basketball scout for DraftExpress.com, and an NBA contributor for The Ringer. Contact Information: derek.bodner@draftexpress.com / @DerekBodnerNBA

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  • scurrypsu

    The Lakers suck. Mr. “Ice in my veins” choked the game away down the stretch with several TOs and missed shots. I guess he peaked in that summer league win versus the Sixers.