Draft Pick Tracker – March 30th, 2017
Welcome back to your daily Sixers draft pick tracker.
Summary:
No real change in the lottery odds, as while the Sixers and the Kings both lost, so did their main tanking rivals (Orlando and New York). No games impacted the Lakers pick.
Here’s a graph over how the Sixers’ lottery odds have changed by date. Included in the graphs are lines for the odds of the #1 pick, a top-3 pick, and of having two top-5 picks after May 16th’s lottery.
2017 Draft Pick Tracker – Summary
| Pick | Place | GB (from 2nd) | Games Left | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakers | 2nd | — | 8 | 44.2% chance at conveying |
| Sixers | t5th | 7.0 | 7 | 76 lottery combinations |
| Kings | 7th | 8.0 | 7 | 43 lottery combinations |
Yesterday’s results:
- Philadelphia lost (good): See below.
- Sacramento lost (good): The Sixers and the Kings both lost, which was necessary to keep the status quo, as the two important teams around them (Orlando, a game back from the Sixers, and the Knicks, tied with the Sixers) both lost as well.
- Orlando lost (bad): Orlando blew a 10-point 4th quarter lead to lose in overtime. A win would have tied them with the Sixers at 28-47.
- New York lost (bad): The Knicks lost again, remain tied with the Sixers at 28-47, one game back from the 29-46 Kings.
Tonight’s games:
- LAL @ Minnesota (go Lakers?): Either outcome has its advantages. The Wolves winning would give them 2 more wins than the Kings, all but locking Sacramento into finishing with one of the 7 worst records. A Lakers win, however, could bump them up to the 3rd worst record, depending on…
- LAC @ Phoenix (go Clippers): The Clippers have been a little bit unreliable of late (cough*Kings game*cough*), but they should be able to beat a Phoenix team that has lost 9 in a row. That could drop the Suns, who are only a half game up on the Lakers, into the 2nd worst record.
Current combined odds for Sixers/Kings pick swap:
- #1 pick: 11.9% (no change since yesterday)
- Top-3 pick: 38.1% (no change since yesterday)
- Two top-5 picks: 26.7% (no change since yesterday)
Lakers Pick (currently 2nd):
Lakers draft pick – Current Status:
| Team | Place | Record | GB (from LAL) | Games Left | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nets | 1st | 16-58 | -5.0 | 8 | 5-5 |
| Lakers | 2nd | 21-53 | — | 8 | 2-8 |
| Suns | 3rd | 22-53 | +0.5 | 7 | 1-9 |
(Where the Lakers currently are in the standings)
Lakers Draft Pick Matrix:
| Finishes | 1-3 pick | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worst record | 64.3% | 35.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2nd worst | 55.8% | 31.9% | 12.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3rd | 46.9% | 22.6% | 26.5% | 4.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4th | 37.8% | 9.9% | 35.0% | 16.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 5th | 29.1% | 0.0% | 26.1% | 35.9% | 8.4% | 0.4% |
What odds the Lakers have of getting each pick (columns) depending on where they finish in the standings (rows). In red means the Sixers would not get the pick. The row in bold is where the Lakers are if the season finished today. All odds assume no ties in the final standings).
Sixers/Kings Pick (currently t5th/7th):
| Team | Place | Record | GB (Sixers) | Games Left | Last 10 | Lotto combinations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic | 4th | 27-48 | -1.0 | 7 | 3-7 | 119 |
| Sixers | t5th | 28-47 | — | 7 | 5-5 | 76 |
| Knicks | t5th | 28-47 | — | 7 | 2-8 | 75 |
| Kings | 7th | 29-46 | +1.0 | 7 | 4-6 | 43 |
| Wolves | 8th | 29-44 | +2.0 | 9 | 3-7 | 28 |
(How the Sixers and Kings fit into the standings. Lottery ball combinations based on if the season ended today.)
