Draft Pick Tracker – March 31st, 2017
Welcome back to your daily Sixers draft pick tracker.
Summary:
Not much change. The only two games last night were the Lakers and the Suns, and they both lost. LAL remains a half game behind Phoenix with 7 left to play.
Here’s a graph over how the Sixers’ lottery odds have changed by date. Included in the graphs are lines for the odds of the #1 pick, a top-3 pick, and of having two top-5 picks after May 16th’s lottery.
2017 Draft Pick Tracker – Summary
| Pick | Place | GB (from 2nd) | Games Left | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakers | 2nd | — | 7 | 44.2% chance at conveying |
| Sixers | t5th | 7.0 | 7 | 76 lottery combinations |
| Kings | 7th | 8.0 | 7 | 43 lottery combinations |
Yesterday’s results:
- Minnesota beat LAL (bad’ish): The Lakers and the Suns both losing means there’s no change as it relates to the Lakers’ positioning. The Lakers are still a half game back from the 3rd slot, but now with 7 games left to play. On the plus side, the Wolves are now a win up on the Kings (with a game in hand).
- LAC beat Phoenix (good): ^– See above.
Tonight’s games:
- Orlando @ Boston (go Magic): Orlando’s one win behind the Sixers, so go Magic.
- Philadelphia @ Cleveland: Even the Sixers without Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid, and Robert Covington might be able to drop 110 on the Cavs with the way they’re playing.
- New York @ Miami (go Knicks): New York is finishing off a home-and-home with Miami tonight. They lost the last one by 17 and this one’s in Miami, so don’t get your hopes up, but a Knicks win could push them ahead of the Sixers in the standings.
- Sacramento @ New Orleans (go Pels): This one’s obvs. An Orlando win and Sacramento loss could have the Kings within 1 game of the 4th worst record in the league. DeMarcus Cousins revenge game, do it.
Current combined odds for Sixers/Kings pick swap:
- #1 pick: 11.9% (no change since yesterday)
- Top-3 pick: 38.1% (no change since yesterday)
- Two top-5 picks: 26.7% (no change since yesterday)
Lakers Pick (currently 2nd):
Lakers draft pick – Current Status:
| Team | Place | Record | GB (from LAL) | Games Left | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nets | 1st | 16-59 | -5.0 | 7 | 4-6 |
| Lakers | 2nd | 21-54 | — | 7 | 1-9 |
| Suns | 3rd | 22-54 | +0.5 | 6 | 0-10 |
(Where the Lakers currently are in the standings)
Lakers Draft Pick Matrix:
| Finishes | 1-3 pick | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worst record | 64.3% | 35.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2nd worst | 55.8% | 31.9% | 12.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3rd | 46.9% | 22.6% | 26.5% | 4.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4th | 37.8% | 9.9% | 35.0% | 16.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 5th | 29.1% | 0.0% | 26.1% | 35.9% | 8.4% | 0.4% |
What odds the Lakers have of getting each pick (columns) depending on where they finish in the standings (rows). In red means the Sixers would not get the pick. The row in bold is where the Lakers are if the season finished today. All odds assume no ties in the final standings).
Sixers/Kings Pick (currently t5th/7th):
| Team | Place | Record | GB (Sixers) | Games Left | Last 10 | Lotto combinations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic | 4th | 27-48 | -1.0 | 7 | 3-7 | 119 |
| Sixers | t5th | 28-47 | — | 7 | 5-5 | 76 |
| Knicks | t5th | 28-47 | — | 7 | 2-8 | 75 |
| Kings | 7th | 29-46 | +1.0 | 7 | 4-6 | 43 |
| Wolves | 8th | 30-44 | +2.5 | 8 | 3-7 | 28 |
(How the Sixers and Kings fit into the standings. Lottery ball combinations based on if the season ended today.)
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MyCatIsSoHigh