Draft Pick Tracker – April 1st, 2017

Welcome back to your daily Sixers draft pick tracker.

Summary:
No games impacted the Lakers pick, but the Magic, Sixers, Knicks, and Kings were all in action, the 4 teams that will primarily impact the lottery balls the Sixers will get in May 16th’s lottery. With the exception of a 1 point loss by Orlando, everything came up perfectly for the Sixers last night.

Here’s a graph over how the Sixers’ lottery odds have changed by date. Included in the graphs are lines for the odds of the #1 pick, a top-3 pick, and of having two top-5 picks after May 16th’s lottery.

2017 Draft Pick Tracker – Summary

Yesterday’s results:

• Boston beat Orlando (bad): The Magic held a 7 point halftime lead, gave it up in the 3rd quarter, and barely lost a 117-116 game that would have tied them with the Sixers.
• Cleveland beat Philadelphia (good): The Sixers loss, and Knicks win, places the Sixers alone in the 5th slot at 28-48. An Orlando win and this night would have been perfect.
• New York beat Miami (!) (good): Hallelujah. The Knicks may not win many (any?) more games the rest of the season, but with only 6 games left, every game has a huge impact.
• New Orleans beat Sacramento (good): Sacramento lost, putting them a full win behind the Wolves (with the Wolves having 2 games in hand). It also puts the Kings in a tie with the Knicks at 29-47.

Tonight’s games:

• Orlando @ Brooklyn (go Magic): Huge game. Yuge. It’s a back to back, and on the road, for the Magic, but it’s one of the winnable games left for Orlando. Again, the Magic are one game back from the Sixers and two from the Kings. Passing one, or both, would greatly help the Sixers on lottery night.
• LAL @ LAC (go Lakers): The battle of LA. Don’t have my hopes up, but a win, and Phoenix loss, would propel the Lakers into that 3rd slot, and bump the odds that the Lakers pick conveys from 44.2% to 53.1%.
• Phoenix @ Portland (go Blazers): ^– See above.
• Sacramento @ Minnesota (go Wolves): Big game. A potentially winnable game for the Kings, especially with how Minnesota has been struggling of late, but it is on the road on the tail end of a back-to-back. A Kings loss here would give the Wolves 2 more wins than the Kings and pretty much lock Sacramento into having one of the 7 worst records. It would also pull the Kings to within a half game of the idle Sixers.

Current combined odds for Sixers/Kings pick swap:

• #1 pick: 14.1% (+2.2% change since yesterday)
• Top-3 pick: 44.0% (+5.9% change since yesterday)
• Two top-5 picks: 29.6% (+2.9% change since yesterday)

Lakers Pick (currently 2nd):

Lakers draft pick – Current Status:

(Where the Lakers currently are in the standings)

Lakers Draft Pick Matrix:

What odds the Lakers have of getting each pick (columns) depending on where they finish in the standings (rows). In red means the Sixers would not get the pick. The row in bold is where the Lakers are if the season finished today. All odds assume no ties in the final standings).

Sixers/Kings Pick (currently 5th/t6th):

(How the Sixers and Kings fit into the standings. Lottery ball combinations based on if the season ended today.)