Draft Pick Tracker – April 2nd, 2017
Welcome back to your daily Sixers draft pick tracker.
Summary:
Still no movement on the Lakers pick, as both LAL and Phoenix lost. The Kings won and could now realistically challenge for the 8th slot, and have put real separation between themselves and the Magic/Sixers/Knicks.
Not great, Bob.
Here’s a graph over how the Sixers’ lottery odds have changed by date. Included in the graphs are lines for the odds of the #1 pick, a top-3 pick, and of having two top-5 picks after May 16th’s lottery.
2017 Draft Pick Tracker – Summary
| Pick | Place | GB (from 2nd) | Games Left | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakers | 2nd | — | 6 | 44.2% chance at conveying |
| Sixers | 5th | 6.5 | 6 | 88 lottery combinations |
| Kings | 7th | 7.5 | 5 | 43 lottery combinations |
Yesterday’s results:
- Brooklyn beat Orlando (bad): Orlando’s loss to the Nets keeps them at 28 wins, one less than the Sixers and with one fewer game left to play.
- LAC beat LAL (bad): See below.
- Portland beat Phoenix (good): The Lakers and Suns both lost, so nothing changes. The Lakers remain a half game back from that 3rd slot.
- Sacramento beat Minnesota (horrific): In a night of bad outcomes, this was easily the worst. The Kings now have 1 more win than the Knicks, 2 more than the 76ers, 3 more than the Magic, and are tied with the Wolves (in the win column) with 5 games left to play.
Tonight’s games:
- Memphis @ LAL (go Lakers): Go Lakers! The Suns are in the midst of an 11 game losing streak and the Sixers can’t even profit out of it.
- Boston @ New York (go Knicks): The extra ping pong ball combinations from the Kings pick swap has taken a severe hit over the last 24 hours. The Knicks tying the Kings in the win column would help reverse that trend.
- Houston @ Phoenix (go Rockets):
- Philadelphia @ Toronto: Every game counts.
Current combined odds for Sixers/Kings pick swap:
- #1 pick: 13.1% (-1.0% change since yesterday)
- Top-3 pick: 41.4%% (-2.6% change since yesterday)
- Two top-5 picks: 28.3% (-1.3% change since yesterday)
Lakers Pick (currently 2nd):
Lakers draft pick – Current Status:
| Team | Place | Record | GB (from LAL) | Games Left | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nets | 1st | 17-59 | -4.0 | 6 | 5-5 |
| Lakers | 2nd | 21-55 | — | 6 | 1-9 |
| Suns | 3rd | 22-55 | +0.5 | 5 | 0-10 |
(Where the Lakers currently are in the standings)
Lakers Draft Pick Matrix:
| Finishes | 1-3 pick | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worst record | 64.3% | 35.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2nd worst | 55.8% | 31.9% | 12.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3rd | 46.9% | 22.6% | 26.5% | 4.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4th | 37.8% | 9.9% | 35.0% | 16.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 5th | 29.1% | 0.0% | 26.1% | 35.9% | 8.4% | 0.4% |
What odds the Lakers have of getting each pick (columns) depending on where they finish in the standings (rows). In red means the Sixers would not get the pick. The row in bold is where the Lakers are if the season finished today. All odds assume no ties in the final standings).
Sixers/Kings Pick (currently 5th/7th):
| Team | Place | Record | GB (Sixers) | Games Left | Last 10 | Lotto combinations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic | 4th | 27-50 | -1.5 | 5 | 3-7 | 119 |
| Sixers | 5th | 28-48 | — | 6 | 4-6 | 88 |
| Knicks | 6th | 29-47 | +1.0 | 6 | 3-7 | 63 |
| Kings | 7th | 30-47 | +1.5 | 5 | 4-6 | 43 |
| Wolves | 8th | 30-45 | +2.5 | 7 | 3-7 | 28 |
(How the Sixers and Kings fit into the standings. Lottery ball combinations based on if the season ended today.)
