Draft Pick Tracker – April 5th, 2017
Welcome back to your daily Sixers draft pick tracker.
Summary:
The Kings keep winning, and continue to get farther away from the Sixers/Magic. A Knicks win and Sixers loss were wasted by a Kings win and Orlando loss, respectively.
Here’s a graph over how the Sixers’ lottery odds have changed by date. Included in the graphs are lines for the odds of the #1 pick, a top-3 pick, and of having two top-5 picks after May 16th’s lottery.
2017 Draft Pick Tracker – Summary
| Pick | Place | GB (from 2nd) | Games Left | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakers | 3rd | — | 5 | 53.1% chance at conveying |
| Sixers | 5th | 5.5 | 4 | 88 lottery combinations |
| Kings | 7th | 8.5 | 4 | 43 lottery combinations |
Yesterday’s results:
- Cleveland beat Orlando (bad): Expected, but not great. Orlando remains 1 game behind the Sixers in that 4th slot.
- Brooklyn beat Philadelphia (good): 141 points. To the Brooklyn Nets. Amazing.
- Golden State beat Minnesota (bad): Expected, once again, but Minnesota’s now tied in the win column with Sacramento.
- New York beat Chicago (good): Big win. A win that could have pushed New York into a tie with Sacramento, if not for…
- Sacramento beat Dallas (bad): Come on, Dallas. The Mavs held a 1 point leading heading into the 4th quarter before getting smoked. The Kings are now 4 games up on the Magic, 3 up on the Sixers, 1 up on the Knicks, and tied in the win column with the Wolves, who now only hold a game in hand.
Tonight’s games:
- Golden State @ Phoenix (go Warriors): Phoenix is still tied in the win column with the Lakers, so a loss is critical.
- LAL @ San Antonio (so Lakers): The Lakers are still tied in the win column with the Suns, so a win would be huge.
Current combined odds for Sixers/Kings pick swap:
- #1 pick: 13.1% (no change since yesterday)
- Top-3 pick: 41.4%% (no change since yesterday)
- Two top-5 picks: 30.8% (no change since yesterday)
Lakers Pick (currently 3rd):
Lakers draft pick – Current Status:
| Team | Place | Record | GB (from LAL) | Games Left | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nets | 1st | 19-59 | -3.5 | 4 | 6-4 |
| Suns | 2nd | 22-56 | -0.5 | 4 | 0-10 |
| Lakers | 3rd | 22-55 | — | 5 | 2-8 |
(Where the Lakers currently are in the standings)
Lakers Draft Pick Matrix:
| Finishes | 1-3 pick | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worst record | 64.3% | 35.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2nd worst | 55.8% | 31.9% | 12.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3rd | 46.9% | 22.6% | 26.5% | 4.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4th | 37.8% | 9.9% | 35.0% | 16.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 5th | 29.1% | 0.0% | 26.1% | 35.9% | 8.4% | 0.4% |
What odds the Lakers have of getting each pick (columns) depending on where they finish in the standings (rows). In red means the Sixers would not get the pick. The row in bold is where the Lakers are if the season finished today. All odds assume no ties in the final standings).
Sixers/Kings Pick (currently 5th/7th):
| Team | Place | Record | GB (Sixers) | Games Left | Last 10 | Lotto combinations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic | 4th | 27-51 | -1.0 | 4 | 3-7 | 119 |
| Sixers | 5th | 28-50 | — | 4 | 3-7 | 88 |
| Knicks | 6th | 30-48 | +2.0 | 4 | 3-7 | 63 |
| Kings | 7th | 31-47 | +3.0 | 4 | 4-6 | 43 |
| Wolves | 8th | 31-46 | +3.5 | 5 | 3-7 | 28 |
(How the Sixers and Kings fit into the standings. Lottery ball combinations based on if the season ended today.)
-
Matt