Draft Pick Tracker – April 6th, 2017
Welcome back to your daily Sixers draft pick tracker.
Summary:
No games impacted either the Sixers or the Kings draft positioning, but an unexpected Lakers win (thanks Pop!) and an expected Phoenix loss has the Lakers 1.5 games up on the Suns in that race for the 3rd slot.
Here’s a graph over how the Sixers’ lottery odds have changed by date. Included in the graphs are lines for the odds of the #1 pick, a top-3 pick, and of having two top-5 picks after May 16th’s lottery.
2017 Draft Pick Tracker – Summary
| Pick | Place | GB (from 3rd) | Games Left | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakers | 3rd | — | 4 | 53.1% chance at conveying |
| Sixers | 5th | 5.0 | 4 | 88 lottery combinations |
| Kings | 7th | 8.0 | 4 | 43 lottery combinations |
Yesterday’s results:
- LAL beat San Antonio (good) (no seriously they really did): Manu and Danny Green were out. Tony Parker, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Kawhi all played fewer than 16 minutes. The improbable Lakers win and…
- Golden State beat Phoenix (good): … the Suns losing puts the Lakers 1.5 games up on Phoenix with 4 games left to play.
Tonight’s games:
- Washington @ New York (go Knicks): The Knicks are two wins up on the Sixers, but just 1 behind the Kings. New York catching Sacramento could gain the Sixers 20 additional ping pong ball combinations for May 16th’s lottery.
- Brooklyn @ Orlando (go Magic): Orlando’s still just 1 win back of the Sixers. Considering the difference between 4th (119 lottery ball combinations) and 5th (88), this is the most important end-of-season result that’s still to be determined.
- Chicago @ Philadelphia: ^– see above.
- Minnesota @ Portland (go Wolves): Minnesota’s tied with Sacramento in the win column. 15 lottery ball combinations hang in the balance. (7th place = 43 lottery ball combinations, 8th place = 28)
Current combined odds for Sixers/Kings pick swap:
- #1 pick: 13.1% (no change since yesterday)
- Top-3 pick: 41.4%% (no change since yesterday)
- Two top-5 picks: 30.8% (no change since yesterday)
Lakers Pick (currently 3rd):
Lakers draft pick – Current Status:
| Team | Place | Record | GB (from LAL) | Games Left | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nets | 1st | 19-59 | -4.0 | 4 | 6-4 |
| Suns | 2nd | 22-57 | -1.5 | 3 | 0-10 |
| Lakers | 3rd | 23-55 | — | 4 | 3-7 |
(Where the Lakers currently are in the standings)
Lakers Draft Pick Matrix:
| Finishes | 1-3 pick | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worst record | 64.3% | 35.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2nd worst | 55.8% | 31.9% | 12.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3rd | 46.9% | 22.6% | 26.5% | 4.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4th | 37.8% | 9.9% | 35.0% | 16.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 5th | 29.1% | 0.0% | 26.1% | 35.9% | 8.4% | 0.4% |
What odds the Lakers have of getting each pick (columns) depending on where they finish in the standings (rows). In red means the Sixers would not get the pick. The row in bold is where the Lakers are if the season finished today. All odds assume no ties in the final standings).
Sixers/Kings Pick (currently 5th/7th):
| Team | Place | Record | GB (Sixers) | Games Left | Last 10 | Lotto combinations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic | 4th | 27-51 | -1.0 | 4 | 3-7 | 119 |
| Sixers | 5th | 28-50 | — | 4 | 3-7 | 88 |
| Knicks | 6th | 30-48 | +2.0 | 4 | 3-7 | 63 |
| Kings | 7th | 31-47 | +3.0 | 4 | 4-6 | 43 |
| Wolves | 8th | 31-46 | +3.5 | 5 | 3-7 | 28 |
(How the Sixers and Kings fit into the standings. Lottery ball combinations based on if the season ended today.)
