Draft Pick Tracker – April 7th, 2017

Welcome back to your daily Sixers draft pick tracker.

Summary:
The Sixers are now tied with the Magic for the 4th worst record. The Kings are tied with the Wolves for the 7th worst record, and are one up on the Knicks at 6th worst.

Note on tiebreakers:

Lottery tiebreakers work completely differently than playoff tiebreakers. Things like head-to-head record are completely thrown out the window. If two teams in the lottery tie, the following happens:

• Ping pong ball combinations are split. So, if the Sixers and Magic end the season tied for the 4th worst record, they take the number of ping pong ball combinations for the 4th worst record (119) and 5th worst record (88), add them up (207), and split them in half (103). Then..
• If the total number of ping pong ball combinations is an odd number, a coin flip determines who gets the extra combination. So a coin flip would determine who gets 104 combinations rather than 103. Also…
• The coin flip then determines who goes first if neither team lands in the top 3. So if, say, the Lakers, Suns, and Celtics (via Nets) land in the top 3 of the lottery, the coin flip determines whether the Sixers draft 4th or 5th.

Here’s a graph over how the Sixers’ lottery odds have changed by date. Included in the graphs are lines for the odds of the #1 pick, a top-3 pick, and of having two top-5 picks after May 16th’s lottery.

2017 Draft Pick Tracker – Summary

Yesterday’s results:

• Knicks lost (bad): The Knicks nearly came back, falling by 3 to the Wizards. The Knicks remain a win back from the Kings.
• Orlando won (terrific): Orlando’s win, and Philly’s loss, ties the two teams at 28-51. If the season ended today they would split 207 lottery ball combinations.
• Philadelphia lost (good): ^– see above.
• Minnesota lost (bad): Minnesota’s loss ties them with the Kings at 31-47.

Tonight’s games:

• Sacramento @ LAL (go Lakers): It goes without saying, but this is a huge game. LAL could take firm control of the 3rd slot with a win, and a Sacramento loss could move them back into the 7th slot, and possibly tie them in the win column with the Knicks at 6th.
• New York @ Memphis (go Knicks): ^– see above.
• Oklahoma City @ Phoenix (go Thunder): With only 3 games left, any Phoenix loss drastically increases the chances that the Lakers end up with the 3rd worst record.
• Minnesota @ Utah (go Wolves): Minnesota’s tied with the Kings at 31-47, so a win would be huge.

Current combined odds for Sixers/Kings pick swap:

• #1 pick: 13.9% (+0.8% change since yesterday)
• Top-3 pick: 43.3%% (+1.9% change since yesterday)
• Two top-5 picks: 30.8% (no change since yesterday)

Lakers Pick (currently 3rd):

Lakers draft pick – Current Status:

(Where the Lakers currently are in the standings)

Lakers Draft Pick Matrix:

What odds the Lakers have of getting each pick (columns) depending on where they finish in the standings (rows). In red means the Sixers would not get the pick. The row in bold is where the Lakers are if the season finished today. All odds assume no ties in the final standings).

Sixers/Kings Pick (currently t4th/t7th):

(How the Sixers and Kings fit into the standings. Lottery ball combinations based on if the season ended today.)