Draft Pick Tracker – April 10th, 2017
Welcome back to your daily Sixers draft pick tracker.
Thanks to an entirely unexpected 4 game winning streak the Lakers are one Lakers win or one Phoenix loss away from clinching the 3rd worst record. The Kings can still finish anywhere from tied for the 6th worst record (53 lottery ball combinations) to tied for the 9th worst record (14 lottery ball combinations), depending on how the final 2 games play out. Buckle up.
Note on tiebreakers:
Lottery tiebreakers work completely differently than playoff tiebreakers. Things like head-to-head record are completely thrown out the window. If two teams in the lottery tie, the following happens:
- Ping pong ball combinations are split. So, if the Sixers and Magic end the season tied for the 4th worst record, they take the number of ping pong ball combinations for the 4th worst record (119) and 5th worst record (88), add them up (207), and split them in half (103). Then..
- If the total number of ping pong ball combinations is an odd number, a coin flip determines who gets the extra combination. So a coin flip would determine who gets 104 combinations rather than 103. Also…
- The coin flip then determines who goes first if neither team lands in the top 3. So if, say, the Lakers, Suns, and Celtics (via Nets) land in the top 3 of the lottery, the coin flip determines whether the Sixers draft 4th or 5th.
Here’s a graph over how the Sixers’ lottery odds have changed by date. Included in the graphs are lines for the odds of the #1 pick, a top-3 pick, and of having two top-5 picks after May 16th’s lottery.
2017 Draft Pick Tracker – Summary
|Pick||Place||GB (from 3rd)||Games Left||Notes|
|Lakers||3rd||—||2||53.1% chance at conveying|
|Sixers||t4th||3.0||2||103 lottery combinations|
|Kings||t7th||6.0||2||36 lottery combinations|
- Lakers beat Minnesota (good, but with consequences): The Lakers win keeps them in the 3rd slot, and places them just 1 LAL victory or 1 Phoenix defeat way from clinching the 3rd worst record. It did come at some consequence, though, as Minnesota remains tied with Sacramento at 31-49 for the 7th worst record.
- Toronto beat New York (bad): New York’s one game back of the Kings with 1 game left. If the Knicks beat the Sixers on Wednesday and the Kings lose their remaining 2 games, the best the Kings can do is tie New York for the 6th worst record and split 106 lottery ball combinations.
- Phoenix beat Dallas (bad): The Phoenix win was mostly canceled out by the Lakers beating Minnesota (although if the Suns had lost, the Lakers would have clinched the 3rd worst record), but Dallas losing keeps them just a game up on Sacramento for that 9th slot.
- Houston beat Sacramento (good): At least the Kings lost. The Kings can still finish anywhere from the 6th worst record (which they’re 1 win up on) to tied for the 9th worst record (2 wins back of).
- Orlando @ Chicago (go Magic): Orlando’s lost 7 of their last 8 road games. This could be a prime opportunity to break this tie for the 4th worst record. (counterpoint: Indy’s inconsistent as heck. See below).
- Indiana @ Philadelphia: The Pacers have won three in a row, but right before that they lost 6 of 7. Which team will show up tonight? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ At least the Pacers have incentive to try, since they can clinch a playoff spot tonight (Indy win along with either a Miami or Chicago loss).
Current combined odds for Sixers/Kings pick swap:
- #1 pick: 13.9% (no change since yesterday)
- Top-3 pick: 43.3%% (no change since yesterday)
- Two top-5 picks: 30.8% (no change since yesterday)
Lakers Pick (currently 3rd):
Lakers draft pick – Current Status:
|Team||Place||Record||GB (from LAL)||Games Left||Last 10|
(Where the Lakers currently are in the standings)
(Note: The Nets have clinched the worst record)
Lakers Draft Pick Matrix:
What odds the Lakers have of getting each pick (columns) depending on where they finish in the standings (rows). In red means the Sixers would not get the pick. The row in bold is where the Lakers are if the season finished today. All odds assume no ties in the final standings).
Sixers/Kings Pick (currently t4th/t7th):
|Team||Place||Record||GB (Sixers)||Games Left||Last 10||Lotto combinations|
(How the Sixers and Kings fit into the standings. Lottery ball combinations based on if the season ended today.)
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