Draft Pick Tracker – April 11th, 2017

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Updated: Tuesday, April 11, 2017 10:28 AM

Welcome back to your daily Sixers draft pick tracker.

Summary:
Orlando and Philadelphia both lost, so there’s no real change in the standings, or odds, except for the fact that there’s now only 1 game to break up the tie.

Note on tiebreakers:

Lottery tiebreakers work completely differently than playoff tiebreakers. Things like head-to-head record are completely thrown out the window. If two teams in the lottery tie, the following happens:

  • Ping pong ball combinations are split. So, if the Sixers and Magic end the season tied for the 4th worst record, they take the number of ping pong ball combinations for the 4th worst record (119) and 5th worst record (88), add them up (207), and split them in half (103). Then..
  • If the total number of ping pong ball combinations is an odd number, a coin flip determines who gets the extra combination. So a coin flip would determine who gets 104 combinations rather than 103. Also…
  • The coin flip then determines who goes first if neither team lands in the top 3. So if, say, the Lakers, Suns, and Celtics (via Nets) land in the top 3 of the lottery, the coin flip determines whether the Sixers draft 4th or 5th.

Here’s a graph over how the Sixers’ lottery odds have changed by date. Included in the graphs are lines for the odds of the #1 pick, a top-3 pick, and of having two top-5 picks after May 16th’s lottery.

2017 Draft Pick Tracker – Summary

Pick Place GB (from 3rd) Games Left Notes
Lakers 3rd 2 53.1% chance at conveying
Sixers t4th 2.5 1 103 lottery combinations
Kings t7th 6.0 2 36 lottery combinations

Yesterday’s results:



  • Chicago beat Orlando (bad): Orlando got smoked by a Chicago team fighting for the playoffs. That, along with…
  • Indiana beat Philadelphia (good): Philadelphia’s loss sets up a tie for the 4th slot with 1 game left. The Sixers play New York (in New York) while the Magic play Detroit (at home). Detroit is, obviously, not great, and playing in Orlando helps, but going up against the Knicks when you need a loss is quite possibly the worst case scenario.

Tonight’s games:

  • New Orleans @ LAL (go Lakers): Sacramento’s 2 games back from New Orleans with 2 left, so a loss here comes with consequences. But the Lakers close out their season on the road against Golden State, albeit a Warriors team that has nothing to play for. I’d like to see the Lakers lock up that 3rd slot and deal with the Kings/Pelicans possibility on Wednesday.
  • OKC @ Minnesota (go Wolves): The Wolves are tied with the Kings for the 7th worst record. A win would be huge.
  • Phoenix @ Sacramento (go, um, Kings. I guess). There are 3 games left which impact the Lakers pick: Phoenix’s one remaining game (this one), and LA’s 2 remaining games. The Sixers need any one LA win or one Phoenix loss. That makes me tempted to root for Phoenix to beat Sacramento. The worst the Lakers can do is tie Phoenix, which would basically reduce the Sixers’ chance of getting the pick by a couple of percentage points. There are arguments both ways for this game. The ideal scenario is LA beats New Orleans (which locks LA in at 3) and Phoenix beats Sacramento (which removes possibility of Sacramento catching New Orleans).

Current combined odds for Sixers/Kings pick swap:

  • #1 pick: 13.9% (no change since yesterday)
  • Top-3 pick: 43.3%% (no change since yesterday)
  • Two top-5 picks: 30.8% (no change since yesterday)

Lakers Pick (currently 3rd):

Lakers draft pick – Current Status:

Team Place Record GB (from LAL) Games Left Last 10
Nets 1st 20-61 -5.5 1 5-5
Suns 2nd 24-57 -1.5 1 2-8
Lakers 3rd 25-55 2 5-5


(Where the Lakers currently are in the standings)

(Note: The Nets have clinched the worst record)

Lakers Draft Pick Matrix:

Finishes 1-3 pick 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
Worst record 64.3% 35.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2nd worst 55.8% 31.9% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3rd 46.9% 22.6% 26.5% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4th 37.8% 9.9% 35.0% 16.1% 1.3% 0.0%
5th 29.1% 0.0% 26.1% 35.9% 8.4% 0.4%

What odds the Lakers have of getting each pick (columns) depending on where they finish in the standings (rows). In red means the Sixers would not get the pick. The row in bold is where the Lakers are if the season finished today. All odds assume no ties in the final standings).

Sixers/Kings Pick (currently t4th/t7th):

Team Place Record GB (Sixers) Games Left Last 10 Lotto combinations
Magic t4th 28-53 1 2-8 104
Sixers t4th 28-53 1 2-8 103
Knicks 6th 30-51 +1.5 1 3-7 63
Kings t7th 31-49 +3.0 2 4-6 36
Wolves t7th 31-49 +3.0 2 3-7 35
Mavs 9th 32-48 +4.0 2 2-8 17

(How the Sixers and Kings fit into the standings. Lottery ball combinations based on if the season ended today.)

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Derek Bodner

Derek Bodner covers the NBA draft for USA Today and DraftExpress.com. He was previously the 76ers Insider for Philadelphia magazine. Contact Information: derek.bodner@draftexpress.com / @DerekBodnerNBA

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  • bubqr

    First graph seems stuck at April 4th

  • disston1

    I think we should root for a Sac loss:

    1. The LA pick doesn’t disappear, the pick swap does.
    2. Difference between 6th tie (with NYK if they win tomorrow) and 8th tie is 30 ping pong balls (53 vs 23), which are used to determine 1st, 2nd and 3rd.
    3. Difference between LA #3 and LA tied for #2 is 53% vs 48.5% chance of conveyance.
    4. LA #2 most likely landing spot is 4th. LA #3 most likely landing spot is #5.
    5. Pick swap is trying to hit a HR, maybe GS. LA#4 is a solid double. Sam would want to swing for the fences, i think.

    • joof

      Great points. There’s so many variables it’s hard to pick one way or the other. I find it hard to compute probabilities when team’s seem to be losing on purpose. I forgot the LA pick transfers. Maybe that’s the trump card. Although I would prefer to get a top 5 pick now since LA won’t be “losing on purpose” next year. I could see LA staying out of top 5 just by playing best lineup from October-April. This draft seems deep as well. It’s out of my hands. I’ll be watching the lottery with friends-and seeing how it all plays out