Draft Pick Tracker – April 12th, 2017
Welcome back to your daily Sixers draft pick tracker.
Summary:
Lakers: locked in as the 3rd worst record.
Sixers: In a tie for the 4th worst record with the Magic. Both play tonight. Can finish with between 119 and 88 lottery ball combinations from the Sixers’ pick.
Kings: In a tie for the 8th worst record. Can finish anywhere from tied for 7th to tied for 9th record, with additional lottery ball combinations ranging from 33 to 14 because of the pick swap rights with the Kings.
Overall, that means the Sixers can have anywhere from a 15.2% chance at the #1 pick to a 10.2% chance, depending on tonight’s results. The Sixers were at a 16.2% chance at getting the #1 pick when I started the tracker on March 9th.
Note on tiebreakers:
Lottery tiebreakers work completely differently than playoff tiebreakers. Things like head-to-head record are completely thrown out the window. If two teams in the lottery tie, the following happens:
- Ping pong ball combinations are split. So, if the Sixers and Magic end the season tied for the 4th worst record, they take the number of ping pong ball combinations for the 4th worst record (119) and 5th worst record (88), add them up (207), and split them in half (103). Then..
- If the total number of ping pong ball combinations is an odd number, a coin flip determines who gets the extra combination. So a coin flip would determine who gets 104 combinations rather than 103. Also…
- The coin flip then determines who goes first if neither team lands in the top 3. So if, say, the Lakers, Suns, and Celtics (via Nets) land in the top 3 of the lottery, the coin flip determines whether the Sixers draft 4th or 5th.
2017 Draft Pick Tracker – Summary
| Pick | Place | GB (from 3rd) | Games Left | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakers | 3rd | — | 1 | Locked in at 3rd worst record. 53.1% chance at conveying |
| Sixers | t4th | 2.0 | 1 | 103 lottery combinations. Can finish either 4th or 5th. |
| Kings | t8th | 6.0 | 1 | 22 lottery combinations. Can finish from t7th to t9th. |
Yesterday’s results:
- LAL beat New Orleans (good‘ish):The Lakers win locks them in as the 3rd worst record, but it keeps alive the possibility that Sacramento (32 wins) catches New Orleans (33).
- Sacramento beat Phoenix (bad): With the Lakers winning, this Sacramento win hurts a lot. The Kings (32 wins) now cannot catch the Knicks (30), can only tie the Wolves (31), are tied with the Mavs (32), and one back from catching the Pelicans (33).
- OKC beat Minnesota (bad): The Thunder sat Westbrook and the Wolves lost a close 2 point game. This could come back to cost the Sixers lottery ball combinations in the end.
Tonight’s games:
- Impacts the Sixers pick:
- Possible lottery ball combinations: 119 (4th, alone), 104 (tied 4th, won tiebreaker), 103 (tied 4th, lost tiebreaker), 88 (5th).
- Philadelphia @ New York: The Sixers are tied with the Magic for the 4th worst record. This game decides it all.
- Detroit @ Orlando (go Magic): ^– see above.
- Impacts the Kings pick:
- Possible lottery ball combinations: 33 (tied 7th), 28 (8th, alone), 17 (9th, alone), 14 (tied 9th)
- Sacramento @ LAC (go Clippers): The Clippers are fighting for home court in the 1st round of the playoffs, so at least they have something to play for.
- Minnesota @ Houston (go Wolves): Houston’s locked in as the 3rd seed in the West, so maybe Minnesota can get a win? Their collapse at the end of the season has hurt.
- Dallas @ Memphis (go Mavs): Memphis is, likewise, locked in as the 7th seed in the West. Dallas’ collapse once they lost out on the playoffs has hurt as well.
- New Orleans @ Portland (go Pels): Portland is locked in as the 8th seed in the West, but some of those lineups that N.O. has run out there of late have been scary.
Current combined odds for Sixers/Kings pick swap:
- #1 pick: 12.6% (-1.3% change since yesterday)
- Top-3 pick: 39.9% (-3.4% change since yesterday)
- Two top-5 picks: 28.8% (-2.0% change since yesterday)
Lakers Pick (Clinched 3rd worst record):
Lakers draft pick – Current Status:
| Team | Place | Record | GB (from LAL) | Games Left | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5-5 | ||||
| 0 | |||||
| Lakers* | 3rd | 26-55 | — | 1 | 6-4 |
(*The Lakers have clinched the 3rd worst record in the NBA)
Lakers Draft Pick Matrix:
| Finishes | 1-3 pick | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worst record | 64.3% | 35.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2nd worst | 55.8% | 31.9% | 12.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3rd | 46.9% | 22.6% | 26.5% | 4.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4th | 37.8% | 9.9% | 35.0% | 16.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 5th | 29.1% | 0.0% | 26.1% | 35.9% | 8.4% | 0.4% |
What odds the Lakers have of getting each pick (columns) depending on where they finish in the standings (rows). In red means the Sixers would not get the pick. The row in bold is where the Lakers are if the season finished today. All odds assume no ties in the final standings).
Sixers/Kings Pick (currently t4th/t8th):
| Team | Place | Record | GB (Sixers) | Games Left | Last 10 | Lotto combinations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic | t4th | 28-53 | — | 1 | 2-8 | 104 |
| Sixers | t4th | 28-53 | — | 1 | 2-8 | 103 |
| Knicks | 6th | 30-51 | +2.0 | 1 | 3-7 | 63 |
| Wolves | 7th | 31-50 | +3.0 | 1 | 3-7 | 43 |
| Kings | t8th | 32-49 | +4.0 | 1 | 5-5 | 23 |
| Mavs | t8th | 32-49 | +4.0 | 1 | 1-9 | 22 |
| Pelicans | 9th | 33-48 | +5.0 | 1 | 3-7 | 11 |
(How the Sixers and Kings fit into the standings. Lottery ball combinations based on if the season ended today.)
