Draft Pick Tracker – March 15th, 2017
Welcome back to your daily Sixers draft pick tracker.
We’ll start off with a table at the top summarizing the status of the three picks, then we’ll list out last night’s games and whether their results were good or bad for the Sixers draft pick positioning, and follow that up with tonight’s games and who you should root for. Finally, we’ll have some tables at the bottom providing some additional details on the various draft picks, including odds that the Lakers pick conveys at each position.
(In parenthesis will be whether the outcome is good or bad for that pick, if it happened last night, and who to cheer for if the game takes place tonight).
2017 Draft Pick Tracker – Summary
| Pick | Place | GB (from 2nd) | Games Left | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakers | 2nd | — | 15 | 44.2% chance at conveying |
| Sixers | 5th | 4.0 | 15 | 88 lottery combinations |
| Kings | t6th | 6.0 | 15 | 63 lottery combinations |
Last night’s results:
- Warriors beat the Sixers (good): Close one. Very close. Much closer than expected. But the Sixers loss keeps them tied in the win column with the Magic.
- Pelicans beat the Blazers (good): The Pelicans victory over the Blazers gives them one more win than the Kings.
- Knicks beat the Pacers (good): The Knicks surprising victory over the Pacers gives them one more win than the Kings as well.
Tonight’s games:
- Kings @ Suns (go Suns): The game of the night. The Kings’ continued fall down the standings has been good for the Sixers odds, and you hope that continues, especially since I can’t see the Lakers catching Phoenix anyway.
- Wolves @ Celtics (go Wolves): The Wolves have won 7 of their last 10 games and you *probably* don’t have to worry about the Kings making up that 2 game difference in the win column, but every Minnesota win helps.
- Lakers @ Rockets (go Lakers, I guess): If you’re desperately hoping for the Lakers to catch the Suns, you’re probably hoping for an LAL victory here. My expectations are set accordingly.
- Pelicans @ Heat (go Pelicans): Every Pelican win helps cement Sacramento as the 6th worst record.
Current combined odds for Sixers/Kings pick swap:
- #1 pick: 15.1% (+1.0% change from yesterday)
- Top-3 pick: 46.5% (+2.5% change from yesterday)
- Two Top-5 Picks: 30.9% (+1.3% change from yesterday)
Lakers Pick (currently 2nd):
Lakers draft pick – Current Status:
| Team | Place | Record | GB (from LAL) | Games Left | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nets | 1st | 12-54 | -7.5 | 16 | 3-7 |
| Lakers | 2nd | 20-47 | — | 15 | 1-9 |
| Suns | 3rd | 22-45 | +2.0 | 15 | 4-6 |
| Magic | 4th | 24-44 | +3.5 | 14 | 3-7 |
(Where the Lakers currently are in the standings)
Lakers Draft Pick Matrix:
| Finishes | 1-3 pick | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worst record | 64.3% | 35.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2nd worst | 55.8% | 31.9% | 12.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3rd | 46.9% | 22.6% | 26.5% | 4.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4th | 37.8% | 9.9% | 35.0% | 16.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 5th | 29.1% | 0.0% | 26.1% | 35.9% | 8.4% | 0.4% |
What odds the Lakers have of getting each pick (columns) depending on where they finish in the standings (rows). In red means the Sixers would not get the pick. The row in bold is where the Lakers are if the season finished today. All odds assume no ties in the final standings).
Sixers/Kings Pick (currently 5th/6th):
| Team | Place | Record | GB (Sixers) | Games Left | Last 10 | Lotto combinations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic | 4th | 24-44 | +1.5 | 14 | 3-7 | 119 |
| Sixers | 5th | 24-43 | — | 15 | 2-8 | 88 |
| Kings | 6th | 26-41 | +2,0 | 15 | 2-8 | 63 |
| Knicks | 7th | 27-41 | +2.5 | 14 | 4-6 | 43 |
| Pelicans | 8th | 27-40 | +3.0 | 15 | 4-6 | 28 |
| Mavs | t9th | 28-38 | +4.5 | 16 | 6-4 | 14 |
| Wolves | t9th | 28-38 | +4.5 | 16 | 7-3 | 14 |
(How the Sixers and Kings fit into the standings. Lottery ball combinations based on if the season ended today.)
