Draft Pick Tracker – March 21st, 2017

Welcome back to your daily Sixers draft pick tracker.

Summary of last night:

The Orlando Magic coming from behind to beat the 76ers keeps hope alive that the Sixers could jump up to the 4th worst record, as they’re now tied in the win column and only 0.5 games back of Orlando. It also keeps open the possibility that the Magic could pass the Kings, which would lead to a significant amount of additional ping pong ball combinations (see below).

On the downside, the Knicks lost again, putting them in a tie with Sacramento for the 6th worst record.

2017 Draft Pick Tracker – Summary

Yesterday’s results:

• Charlotte beat Atlanta (good): Charlotte’s win pushes them into the 11th spot, and 4 games up on the Kings. That should be too much to make up for Sacramento.
• LAC beat New York (bad): The Knicks loss puts them in a tie, at 27-43, with the Sacramento Kings for the 6th worst record.
• Orlando beat Philly (great): Huge game. Yuge. A Philly win would have put them 2.5 games up on the Magic, which would have pretty much ended that dream. Now they’re tied in the win column at 26, with the Kings only one up at 27. This has the potential to have major ramifications on lottery night, since the 4th/5th/6th/7th spots have a combined 313 lottery ball combinations in play. For reference:
  • Best case scenario (Sixers 4th, Kings 5th) = 207 combinations, 20.7% chance at the #1 pick, 59.2% chance at a top-3 pick.
  • Worst case scenario (Sixers 6th, Kings 7th) = 106 combinations, 10.6% chance at the #1 pick, 34.5% chance at a top-3 pick.
  • Current: 141 combinations, 14.1% chance at the #1 pick, 44% at a top-3 pick.

Tonight’s games:

• Golden State @ Dallas (go Mavs): The Mavs are 3 wins up on the Kings and should be safe. Still, another win doesn’t hurt.
• LAC @ LAL (go Lakers) (lol): The Lakers are, shockingly, still only 2 behind the Suns. Passing Phoenix would make the odds the Sixers get the pick this year jump from 44.2% to 53.1%.
• Phoenix @ Miami (go Miami): ^– see above.
• San Antonio @ Minnesota (go Wolves): The Wolves are still only 1 win up on the Kings, so some separation would be great.
• Memphis @ New Orleans (go Pels): The Pelicans are 2 wins up on the Kings, and some more separation would be preferable.

Current combined odds for Sixers/Kings pick swap:

• #1 pick: 14.1% (-1.0% change since yesterday)
• Top-3 pick: 44.0% (-2.5% change since yesterday)
• Two top-5 picks: 29.6% 30.9% (-1.3% change since yesterday)

Lakers Pick (currently 2nd):

Lakers draft pick – Current Status:

(Where the Lakers currently are in the standings)

Lakers Draft Pick Matrix:

What odds the Lakers have of getting each pick (columns) depending on where they finish in the standings (rows). In red means the Sixers would not get the pick. The row in bold is where the Lakers are if the season finished today. All odds assume no ties in the final standings).

Sixers/Kings Pick (currently 5th/t6th):

(How the Sixers and Kings fit into the standings. Lottery ball combinations based on if the season ended today.)