Draft Pick Tracker – March 29th, 2017
Welcome back to your daily Sixers draft pick tracker.
Summary:
The Lakers and Suns continue to refuse to win, the Sixers win hurts their positioning with the Magic/Knicks, but a Minnesota win helps save the day.
Here’s a graph over how the Sixers’ lottery odds have changed by date. Included in the graphs are lines for the odds of the #1 pick, a top-3 pick, and of having two top-5 picks after May 16th’s lottery.
2017 Draft Pick Tracker – Summary
| Pick | Place | GB (from 2nd) | Games Left | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakers | 2nd | — | 8 | 44.2% chance at conveying |
| Sixers | t5th | 7.0 | 8 | 76 lottery combinations |
| Kings | 7th | 8.0 | 8 | 43 lottery combinations |
Yesterday’s results:
- Philadelphia won (bad): You just can’t tank with Dario Saric and Robert Covington, as Rich Hofmann so eloquently put it. The Sixers are once again tied with the Knicks at the 5th worst record and now a full game up on Orlando (4th).
- Lakers lost (bad): The Lakers, surprise surprise, couldn’t slow down the Wizards, falling 119-108. Luckily they’re still a half game back on the Suns, because…
- Phoenix lost (good): The Suns lost their 9th in a row. This is, a) great because it keeps the Lakers within arms reach, b) frustrating because any level of shit-giving and the Lakers would have the 3rd worst record, and thus a 53.1% chance of conveying this year rather than a 44.2% chance.
- Minnesota won (great): Hallelujah. The win gives Minnesota one more than the Kings.
Tonight’s games:
- Miami @ New York (go Knicks): The Sixers are tied with the Knicks at 28-46, so a win would help greatly.
- OKC @ Orlando (go Magic): The Magic are a full game back of the Sixers at 27-47 with only 8 remaining, so every win is huge.
- Atlanta @ Philadelphia: Back to back against a team that has frequently given the Sixers problems.
- Utah @ Sacramento (go Jazz): Utah hasn’t been playing great of late, losing 4 of their last 6, but they’ve won 2 out of 3 against Sacramento so far this year. It seems optimistic, but there’s still a chance the Kings can be caught by the Knicks and/or Magic to fall further in the standings.
Current combined odds for Sixers/Kings pick swap:
- #1 pick: 11.9% (+0.3% change since yesterday)
- Top-3 pick: 38.1% (+0.8% change since yesterday)
- Two top-5 picks: 26.7% (+0.6% change since yesterday)
Lakers Pick (currently 2nd):
Lakers draft pick – Current Status:
| Team | Place | Record | GB (from LAL) | Games Left | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nets | 1st | 16-58 | -5.0 | 8 | 5-5 |
| Lakers | 2nd | 21-53 | — | 8 | 2-8 |
| Suns | 3rd | 22-53 | +0.5 | 7 | 1-9 |
(Where the Lakers currently are in the standings)
Lakers Draft Pick Matrix:
| Finishes | 1-3 pick | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worst record | 64.3% | 35.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2nd worst | 55.8% | 31.9% | 12.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3rd | 46.9% | 22.6% | 26.5% | 4.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4th | 37.8% | 9.9% | 35.0% | 16.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 5th | 29.1% | 0.0% | 26.1% | 35.9% | 8.4% | 0.4% |
What odds the Lakers have of getting each pick (columns) depending on where they finish in the standings (rows). In red means the Sixers would not get the pick. The row in bold is where the Lakers are if the season finished today. All odds assume no ties in the final standings).
Sixers/Kings Pick (currently t5th/7th):
| Team | Place | Record | GB (Sixers) | Games Left | Last 10 | Lotto combinations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic | 4th | 27-47 | -1.0 | 8 | 4-6 | 119 |
| Sixers | t5th | 28-46 | — | 8 | 5-5 | 76 |
| Knicks | t5th | 28-46 | — | 8 | 2-8 | 75 |
| Kings | 7th | 29-45 | +1.0 | 8 | 4-6 | 43 |
| Wolves | 8th | 29-44 | +1.5 | 9 | 3-7 | 28 |
(How the Sixers and Kings fit into the standings. Lottery ball combinations based on if the season ended today.)
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