Draft Pick Tracker – April 8th, 2017

Welcome back to your daily Sixers draft pick tracker.

Summary:
The Lakers beating the Kings kept the status quo, but that overshadowed the rest of the night going against the Sixers’ favor.

Note on tiebreakers:

Lottery tiebreakers work completely differently than playoff tiebreakers. Things like head-to-head record are completely thrown out the window. If two teams in the lottery tie, the following happens:

• Ping pong ball combinations are split. So, if the Sixers and Magic end the season tied for the 4th worst record, they take the number of ping pong ball combinations for the 4th worst record (119) and 5th worst record (88), add them up (207), and split them in half (103). Then..
• If the total number of ping pong ball combinations is an odd number, a coin flip determines who gets the extra combination. So a coin flip would determine who gets 104 combinations rather than 103. Also…
• The coin flip then determines who goes first if neither team lands in the top 3. So if, say, the Lakers, Suns, and Celtics (via Nets) land in the top 3 of the lottery, the coin flip determines whether the Sixers draft 4th or 5th.

Here’s a graph over how the Sixers’ lottery odds have changed by date. Included in the graphs are lines for the odds of the #1 pick, a top-3 pick, and of having two top-5 picks after May 16th’s lottery.

2017 Draft Pick Tracker – Summary

Yesterday’s results:

• LAL beat Sacramento (great): This win by the Lakers was clutch because it cancels out Phoenix’s surprising victory over OKC, and Sacramento’s loss keeps the status quo (just 1 win up on the 6th-slotted Knicks, tied with the Wolves for the 7th worst record, and 1 win behind 9th-slotted Dallas).
• Memphis beat New York (bad): A New York win here and there and the Kings could fall all the way to the 6th worst record. That didn’t happen last night, unfortunately.
• Phoenix beat Oklahoma City (bad): If this game had gone as expected, Phoenix would be 2 wins back with 2 games to go. Instead, they remain within a win of the Lakers.
• Utah beat Minnesota (bad): Minnesota’s loss keeps them tied with the Kings at 31-48 for the 7th worst record.
• San Antonio beat Dallas (bad): I’ve been sleeping on Dallas, whose 3 game losing streak has them at 32-47, just 1 win up on the Kings.

Tonight’s games:

• Indiana @ Orlando (go Magic): With Orlando and Philly both in action tonight, the tie for the 4th worst record could be broken. Indy’s lost its last 8 road games.
• Milwaukee @ Philadelphia: ^– see above.

Current combined odds for Sixers/Kings pick swap:

• #1 pick: 13.9% (no change since yesterday)
• Top-3 pick: 43.3%% (no change since yesterday)
• Two top-5 picks: 30.8% (no change since yesterday)

Lakers Pick (currently 3rd):

Lakers draft pick – Current Status:

(Where the Lakers currently are in the standings)

(Note: The Nets have clinched the worst record)

Lakers Draft Pick Matrix:

What odds the Lakers have of getting each pick (columns) depending on where they finish in the standings (rows). In red means the Sixers would not get the pick. The row in bold is where the Lakers are if the season finished today. All odds assume no ties in the final standings).

Sixers/Kings Pick (currently t4th/t7th):

(How the Sixers and Kings fit into the standings. Lottery ball combinations based on if the season ended today.)