Draft Pick Tracker – April 11th, 2017

Welcome back to your daily Sixers draft pick tracker.

Summary:
Orlando and Philadelphia both lost, so there’s no real change in the standings, or odds, except for the fact that there’s now only 1 game to break up the tie.

Note on tiebreakers:

Lottery tiebreakers work completely differently than playoff tiebreakers. Things like head-to-head record are completely thrown out the window. If two teams in the lottery tie, the following happens:

• Ping pong ball combinations are split. So, if the Sixers and Magic end the season tied for the 4th worst record, they take the number of ping pong ball combinations for the 4th worst record (119) and 5th worst record (88), add them up (207), and split them in half (103). Then..
• If the total number of ping pong ball combinations is an odd number, a coin flip determines who gets the extra combination. So a coin flip would determine who gets 104 combinations rather than 103. Also…
• The coin flip then determines who goes first if neither team lands in the top 3. So if, say, the Lakers, Suns, and Celtics (via Nets) land in the top 3 of the lottery, the coin flip determines whether the Sixers draft 4th or 5th.

Here’s a graph over how the Sixers’ lottery odds have changed by date. Included in the graphs are lines for the odds of the #1 pick, a top-3 pick, and of having two top-5 picks after May 16th’s lottery.

2017 Draft Pick Tracker – Summary

Yesterday’s results:

• Chicago beat Orlando (bad): Orlando got smoked by a Chicago team fighting for the playoffs. That, along with…
• Indiana beat Philadelphia (good): Philadelphia’s loss sets up a tie for the 4th slot with 1 game left. The Sixers play New York (in New York) while the Magic play Detroit (at home). Detroit is, obviously, not great, and playing in Orlando helps, but going up against the Knicks when you need a loss is quite possibly the worst case scenario.

Tonight’s games:

• New Orleans @ LAL (go Lakers): Sacramento’s 2 games back from New Orleans with 2 left, so a loss here comes with consequences. But the Lakers close out their season on the road against Golden State, albeit a Warriors team that has nothing to play for. I’d like to see the Lakers lock up that 3rd slot and deal with the Kings/Pelicans possibility on Wednesday.
• OKC @ Minnesota (go Wolves): The Wolves are tied with the Kings for the 7th worst record. A win would be huge.
• Phoenix @ Sacramento (go, um, Kings. I guess). There are 3 games left which impact the Lakers pick: Phoenix’s one remaining game (this one), and LA’s 2 remaining games. The Sixers need any one LA win or one Phoenix loss. That makes me tempted to root for Phoenix to beat Sacramento. The worst the Lakers can do is tie Phoenix, which would basically reduce the Sixers’ chance of getting the pick by a couple of percentage points. There are arguments both ways for this game. The ideal scenario is LA beats New Orleans (which locks LA in at 3) and Phoenix beats Sacramento (which removes possibility of Sacramento catching New Orleans).

Current combined odds for Sixers/Kings pick swap:

• #1 pick: 13.9% (no change since yesterday)
• Top-3 pick: 43.3%% (no change since yesterday)
• Two top-5 picks: 30.8% (no change since yesterday)

Lakers Pick (currently 3rd):

Lakers draft pick – Current Status:

(Where the Lakers currently are in the standings)

(Note: The Nets have clinched the worst record)

Lakers Draft Pick Matrix:

What odds the Lakers have of getting each pick (columns) depending on where they finish in the standings (rows). In red means the Sixers would not get the pick. The row in bold is where the Lakers are if the season finished today. All odds assume no ties in the final standings).

Sixers/Kings Pick (currently t4th/t7th):

(How the Sixers and Kings fit into the standings. Lottery ball combinations based on if the season ended today.)