Draft Pick Tracker – Lottery odds set as season comes to a close
The regular season came to a close last night, and after a month of slowing chipping away at the team’s odds in May 16th’s lottery, the Sixers had an almost perfect night, regaining much of that lost ground.
The night started off with the New York Knicks coming from behind to beat the 76ers, giving Philadelphia their 8th straight defeat. At almost the exact same time the Orlando Magic eeked out a narrow victory over the Detroit Pistons. The combination of those two events gave the Sixers the 4th worst record all to themselves, the first time they’ve held the 4th worst record since I started the draft pick tracker 6 weeks ago.
The Kings pick swap was similarly a success, although Sacramento wasn’t able to recoup all the damage they did over the final two weeks of the season. The Kings started winning just as the Mavs, Knicks, Wolves, and Pelicans all went into massive downward spirals. What once appeared as if the Kings had the chance to finish with the 5th or 6th worst record now threatened to fall all the way to a tie for the 9th worst record, greatly diminishing the number of lottery ball combinations the Sixers would get as part of the pick swap.
The combination of results last night (Kings loss, Dallas and New Orleans win) gives the Kings the 8th worst record in the league. That’s not perfect — Minnesota and New York both fell just one win short of Sacramento — but it’s far from the worst case scenario. The Sixers will have an additional 28 lottery ball combinations to chase the #1 pick and Markelle Fultz thanks to Sacramento’s desperation to sign Rajon Rondo and Kosta Koufos two summers ago.
Overall, that gives the Sixers a 14.7% chance at the #1 pick, nearly 3 percentage points better than the 4th worst record would typically get and roughly equivalent to the odds the Los Angeles Lakers have (15.6%).
The worst case scenario last night would have dropped the Sixers’ lottery odds all the way down to 10.2%, and considering how close many of the games were (Sixers won by 1, Magic won by 4, Dallas was losing heading into the 4th quarter, New Orleans won by 3), the worst case scenario was very much in play. Last night was a good night for the Sixers.
The Lakers came into the night having clinched the 3rd worst record. The Sixers will have a 53.1% chance of getting that pick, which includes a pretty even split between the 4th pick (22.6%) and 5th pick (26.5%), with an outside chance that the pick falls all the way down to 6th (4%).
2017 Draft Pick Tracker – Summary
| Pick | Place | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Lakers | 3rd | Sixers will have a 53.1% chance of getting this pick |
| Sixers | 4th | 119 lottery ball combinations. |
| Kings | 8th | 28 additional lottery ball combinations. |
Odds the Lakers pick…
- Does not convey (Lakers keep pick): 46.9%
- Conveys to the Sixers: 53.1%
- as the #4 pick: 22.6%
- as the #5 pick: 26.5%
- as the #6 pick: 4%
The odds that the Sixers get…
- The #1 pick: 14.7% (+2.1% increase from yesterday)
- A top-3 pick: 45.3% (+5.4% increase from yesterday)
- Two top-5 picks: 39.5% (+10.7% increase from yesterday)
Yesterday’s results:
- New York beat Philadelphia (good): New York’s come from behind win set the stage for the Sixers to have the 4th worst record, and 119 lottery ball combinations, all to themselves.
- Orlando beat Detroit (good): Orlando’s late win drops them to 5th.
- LAC beat Sacramento (good): The Clippers had something to play for, and it showed up in the second half where they outscored the Kings by 14 and took control of the game. Sacramento’s loss prevented them from tying the Pelicans for the 9th worst record and, combined with Dallas’ win, placed the Kings alone with the 8th worst record.
- Houston beat Minnesota (bad): The only bad outcome from last night. Minnesota tried to come back with a 37 point 4th quarter, but it wasn’t enough. A Wolves victory would have tied Sacramento for the 7th worst record with 32 wins, which would have given the Sixers an additional 12 lottery ball combinations. Oh well.
- Dallas beat Memphis (good): Memphis had nothing to play for as they clinched the 7th seed in the West. It showed in the 4th quarter, where Dallas outscored them by 11. The Dallas win, combined with the Sacramento loss, broke this tie, and gave the Sixers an additional 8 lottery ball combinations.
- New Orleans beat Portland (good): This ended up not mattering because of the Kings loss. However, a Kings win and Pelicans loss would have tied the two teams at the 9th worst record.
Next up: May 16th’s lottery.
