Rundown of the 76ers Odds in Tonight’s NBA Draft Lottery
There are a LOT of possibilities tonight for the 76ers in the lottery.
The Sixers’ own pick can land anywhere from 1st overall to 7th. If the Sacramento Kings jump into the top 3 and have a better pick, the Sixers can swap picks with them. As long as the Lakers finish outside of the top 3 they will send their pick to the Sixers.
Here’s a quick rundown of how likely this all is to happen. All odds courtesy of lotterybucket.com.
(Note: whenever I talk about the Sixers pick, I’m talking about which pick they get. In other words, the better of the Sixers or Kings pick. So if I say the odds the Sixers get the #2 pick, I mean the odds that the Sixers own lottery balls land at #2 or that the Kings land at #2 and the Sixers swap picks. It just gets a bit repetitive to say that every time).
| Event | Odds |
|---|---|
| Sixers get #1 pick | 14.7% |
| Sixers get a top-3 pick | 45.3% |
| Lakers pick conveys (4+) | 53.1% |
| Sixers swap picks with the Kings | 8.6% |
The table below takes a look at two events: what happens with the Sixers pick *and* what happens with the Lakers pick. You would read this as “there is a 9.5% chance the Sixers get the #1 overall pick and the Lakers pick conveys.”
| Sixers pick | Lakers pick Conveys | Lakers Pick Does Not Convey |
|---|---|---|
| #1 overall | 9.5% | 5.2% |
| Top 3 | 28.9% | 16.4% |
| Top 5 | 42.8% | 43.9% |
And, finally, a matrix on exact locations of where the Sixers/Kings pick lands along with the Lakers pick. For example, to find out what the chances are that the Sixers pick comes in at #2 and the Lakers pick at #5, you would find the intersection of the row labeled 2nd and the column labeled 5th.
| The Lakers Pick… | |||||
| Sixers Pick | Does Not Convey | Does Convey | 4th | 5th | 6th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5.2% | 9.5% | 2.4% | 5.8% | 1.3% |
| 2nd | 5.4% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 5.8% | 1.1% |
| 3rd | 5.8% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 0.8% |
| 4th | 9.9% | 0.0% | n/a | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5th | 17.7% | 13.9% | 13.9% | n/a | 0.0% |
| 6th | 3.0% | 9.5% | 0.0% | 0.5% | n/a |
| 7th | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% |
Notes:
- If you get to pick #7 and the Kings haven’t been called, it means the Kings have jumped into the top 3 of the lottery and the Sixers are guaranteed to get a top 3 pick. That does not necessarily mean the Sixers are guaranteed to swap picks, however, as the Sixers could finish with the 2nd pick and the Kings 3rd.
- If the Lakers pick conveys to the Sixers, you should see a card with the Sixers logo that says “from the Lakers”, similar to what happened with the Pelicans pick a few years ago (picture below). So don’t automatically panic if you see a card with the Sixers logo on it drawn outside of the top 3: check to make sure it isn’t the Lakers pick.
- I believe the Kings card would have the Kings logo on it, but the broadcast should inform you of the pick swap. I’m not 100% sure on this, though.
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Keith Baumgart