Rundown of the 76ers Odds in Tonight’s NBA Draft Lottery

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Updated: Tuesday, May 16, 2017 03:02 PM

There are a LOT of possibilities tonight for the 76ers in the lottery.

The Sixers’ own pick can land anywhere from 1st overall to 7th. If the Sacramento Kings jump into the top 3 and have a better pick, the Sixers can swap picks with them. As long as the Lakers finish outside of the top 3 they will send their pick to the Sixers.

Here’s a quick rundown of how likely this all is to happen. All odds courtesy of lotterybucket.com.

(Note: whenever I talk about the Sixers pick, I’m talking about which pick they get. In other words, the better of the Sixers or Kings pick. So if I say the odds the Sixers get the #2 pick, I mean the odds that the Sixers own lottery balls land at #2 or that the Kings land at #2 and the Sixers swap picks. It just gets a bit repetitive to say that every time). 

EventOdds
Sixers get #1 pick14.7%
Sixers get a top-3 pick45.3%
Lakers pick conveys (4+)53.1%
Sixers swap picks with the Kings8.6%
(How likely various events are to occur)

 

The table below takes a look at two events: what happens with the Sixers pick *and* what happens with the Lakers pick. You would read this as “there is a 9.5% chance the Sixers get the #1 overall pick and the Lakers pick conveys.”

Sixers pickLakers pick ConveysLakers Pick Does Not Convey
#1 overall9.5%5.2%
Top 328.9%16.4%
Top 542.8%43.9%
(The odds that the better of the Sixers/Kings pick falls at a certain spot in the draft *and* whether the Lakers pick conveys).
And, finally, a matrix on exact locations of where the Sixers/Kings pick lands along with the Lakers pick. For example, to find out what the chances are that the Sixers pick comes in at #2 and the Lakers pick at #5, you would find the intersection of the row labeled 2nd and the column labeled 5th.



The Lakers Pick…
Sixers Pick Does Not Convey Does Convey 4th 5th 6th
1st 5.2% 9.5% 2.4% 5.8% 1.3%
2nd 5.4% 9.7% 2.8% 5.8% 1.1%
3rd 5.8% 9.7% 3.4% 5.4% 0.8%
4th 9.9% 0.0% n/a 0.0% 0.0%
5th 17.7% 13.9% 13.9% n/a 0.0%
6th 3.0% 9.5% 0.0% 0.5% n/a
7th 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8%

Notes:

  • If you get to pick #7 and the Kings haven’t been called, it means the Kings have jumped into the top 3 of the lottery and the Sixers are guaranteed to get a top 3 pick. That does not necessarily mean the Sixers are guaranteed to swap picks, however, as the Sixers could finish with the 2nd pick and the Kings 3rd.
  • If the Lakers pick conveys to the Sixers, you should see a card with the Sixers logo that says “from the Lakers”, similar to what happened with the Pelicans pick a few years ago (picture below). So don’t automatically panic if you see a card with the Sixers logo on it drawn outside of the top 3: check to make sure it isn’t the Lakers pick.
  • I believe the Kings card would have the Kings logo on it, but the broadcast should inform you of the pick swap. I’m not 100% sure on this, though.

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Derek Bodner

Derek Bodner covers the NBA draft for USA Today and DraftExpress.com. He was previously the 76ers Insider for Philadelphia magazine. Contact Information: derek.bodner@draftexpress.com / @DerekBodnerNBA

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  • Keith Baumgart

    I believe the card will say Sixers from Sacramento if last year’s swap of the Knicks/Denver/Toronto mess is any indication. Denver pick said “Denver from New York” and Toronto’s said “Toronto from Denver”